Week 4 report · Sat, Sep 26 · 2026 Week 4
Illinois
5–3 · Ours #59 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
19–42FinalWe had ILL 13 – OSU 41
AP #7Ohio State
6–1 · Ours #1 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OSU 95%OSU won
OSU 95%OSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OSU −27.OSU −26oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −27.7 · ILL covered by 3
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.3.54.5final 61 · over by 6.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.No call
Quarterbacksthis game
Katin Houser21/38 · 263 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0949th pct
- Comp %
- 55.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Julian Sayin27/36 · 367 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6492nd pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Illinoisoffense | Played like OSU +12.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseOhio State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 60th | 44.6%▼2.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.6%▼15.0 | 40th |
| 78th | +0.27▲0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.47 | 22nd |
| 66th | +0.22▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.46 | 34th |
| 87th | +0.34▲0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.50 | 13th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Ohio Stateoffense | defenseIllinois | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 59.4%▲9.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.4%▼14.0 | 7th |
| 93rd | +0.44▲0.29 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.44▼0.24 | 8th |
| 90th | +0.58▲0.30 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.58▼0.25 | 10th |
| 81st | +0.26▲0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.26▼0.16 | 19th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| IllinoisILL | Ohio StateOSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2210th | Own 2420th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +2.0 pts94th | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −16.312th | +16.388th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.1 pts38th | +1.0 pts94th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ILL +0.7: field position −0.7, kicking +1.4, 4th downs −1.6, penalty first downs +1.5. | +0.753rd | −0.747th |
Season so far
Illinois5–3 · 41st-hardest schedule
W
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5
vs UAB42–23missed −25.5L
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5
vs Duke27–31missed −6.5Wvs Southern Illinois48–10covered −35.5
Lat Ohio State19–42covered +26
at Ohio State19–42covered +26L
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5
vs Purdue17–24missed −9.5W
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5
at Michigan State38–37missed −2.5W
vs Oregon21–10covered +10
vs Oregon21–10covered +10W
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5
at Maryland20–17covered −2.5Ohio State6–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50L
at Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2W
vs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52Wvs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26W
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5Wvs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31W
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.6 · run Sep 26, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is