Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
AP #5Ohio State
6–1 · Ours #5 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–14FinalWe had OSU 29 – IOWA 18
AP #14Iowa
6–2 · Ours #19 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.OSU 76%OSU won
OSU 76%OSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at OSU −14.5.OSU −14.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −11.6 · OSU covered by 2.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 46.9.46.5final 45 · under by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.IOWA +14Llost 0.5 to the close
IOWA +14Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Julian Sayin20/27 · 324 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6391st pct
- Comp %
- 74.1
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Hank Brown12/27 · 132 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.419th pct
- Comp %
- 44.4
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ohio Stateoffense | Played like OSU +22.1Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIowa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77th | 49.3%▼2.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.3%▼20.3 | 24th |
| 71st | +0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.20▼0.38 | 29th |
| 92nd | +0.63▲0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.63▼0.73 | 8th |
| 27th | −0.12▼0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.12▼0.16 | 73rd |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Iowaoffense | defenseOhio State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25th | 34.8%▼8.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.8%▼3.6 | 75th |
| 10th | −0.26▼0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.26▲0.14 | 90th |
| 11th | −0.41▼0.51 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.27 | 89th |
| 42nd | −0.01▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.10 | 58th |
| 15th | 2▼1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.2 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Ohio StateOSU | IowaIOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3273rd | Own 2632nd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.9 pts12th | +2.3 pts97th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 7387th | 4626th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +6.168th | −6.132nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. OSU +3.1: turnovers +5.2, field position +2.2, kicking −3.0, 4th downs −0.6, penalty first downs −0.8. | +3.166th | −3.134th |
Season so far
Ohio State6–1 · 50th-hardest schedule
W
vs Ball State56–3covered −50
vs Ball State56–3covered −50L
at Texas23–24covered +2
at Texas23–24covered +2W
vs Kent State59–3covered −52
vs Kent State59–3covered −52W
vs Illinois42–19missed −26
vs Illinois42–19missed −26Wat Iowa31–14covered −14.5
at Iowa31–14covered −14.5W
vs Maryland45–16missed −31
vs Maryland45–16missed −31W
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5
at Indiana19–15covered −2.5Iowa6–2 · 42nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31W
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14Wvs Northern Iowa55–0covered −37.5
W
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5Lvs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5W
at Washington41–24covered +3
at Washington41–24covered +3L
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-game
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is