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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Northwestern

6–1 FBS · Big Ten · this season
Rating
+10.2
Rank
25
Résumé
21
Projected wins
8.4▲ 3.9 vs preseason
CFP odds
3%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5South Dakota StateSouth Dakota StateNU −27.3NU −14.0W 34–1869
Sat, Sep 199/19ColoradoCOLONU −6.4NU −3.5W 41–769COLO · L
Fri, Sep 259/25at IndianaIUNU +21.8NU +23.5L 23–2955NU · W
Fri, Oct 210/2Penn StatePSUNU +2.9NU +2.5W 34–1370PSU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10Ball StateBALLNU −35.6NU −36.0W 45–1479BALL · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Michigan StateMSUNU −7.9NU −8.5W 24–2157MSU · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24RutgersRUTGNU −19.9NU −15.5W 42–1478NU · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at OregonORENU +5.8NU +3.5ORE −3.5Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7IowaIOWANU −0.8NU −2.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Ohio StateOSUNU +21.4—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at MinnesotaMINNNU −7.8—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28IllinoisILLNU −7.7NU +3.5wk 13

Model on NU games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 3–1 · home 2–0, away 2–2 · avg gap to the market +1.9 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.46–1 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.5
Bowl (6+)96%
9+ wins14%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP3%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 7% with a win vs Oregon, 1% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.259th
Success rate50.0%11th
Pass EPA+0.2821st
Rush EPA+0.237th
Explosive rate18.2%2nd
Quality-drive rate61.1%10th
Points per quality drive5.17th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0054th
Success allowed42.3%82nd
Pass EPA allowed−0.1024th
Rush EPA allowed+0.13111th
Explosive allowed10.9%48th
Havoc rate14.7%60th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.634th
Turnover margin+102nd · exp. +3.5
Field position margin0.0 yd76th
Hidden points / game+4.3banked
Luck, wins+0.15.9 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected+3.8%32nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.225th
Schedule played+0.168th
Schedule remaining+10.116th
Full schedule+4.643rd
Pregame expected wins4.6of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 25th · +10.2AP 20thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUNUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Northwesternoff +0.25 9thdef +0.00 allowed · 54th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.