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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Missouri State

3–5 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−12.1
Rank
122
Résumé
120
Projected wins
4.2▼ 0.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at Texas A&MTA&MMOST +32.1MOST +41.0L 0–5015MOST · L
Sat, Sep 129/12LindenwoodLindenwoodMOST −31.2MOST −16.5W 48–1497
Sat, Sep 199/19MarshallMRSHMOST +3.9MOST +3.0L 24–3056MOST · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at SMUSMUMOST +33.5MOST +34.5L 24–3431MOST · W
Thu, Oct 810/8at Western KentuckyWKUMOST +1.4MOST +2.5L 13–3437MOST · L
Wed, Oct 1410/14Kennesaw StateKENNMOST +1.1MOST +3.0W 24–2148MOST · W
Tue, Oct 2010/20at DelawareDELMOST +6.9MOST +3.0L 38–6137DEL · W
Tue, Oct 2710/27Sam HoustonSHSUMOST −6.6MOST −6.5W 24–369
Sat, Nov 711/7at Florida InternationalFIUMOST +4.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14New Mexico StateNMSUMOST PK—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Jacksonville StateJXSTMOST +11.9—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28LibertyLIBMOST +18.4—wk 13

Model on MOST games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–0 · as the dog 2–3 · home 2–1, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.2 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.23–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.4
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1251st
Success rate42.4%72nd
Pass EPA+0.1453rd
Rush EPA+0.1052nd
Explosive rate12.4%73rd
Quality-drive rate48.7%86th
Points per quality drive4.261st
Defense
EPA allowed+0.14115th
Success allowed45.9%121st
Pass EPA allowed+0.21119th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0789th
Explosive allowed12.4%84th
Havoc rate14.8%54th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−4.1135th
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin−5.7 yd133rd
Hidden points / game−4.9gave up
Luck, wins−0.13.1 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected−1.4%67th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.1122nd
Schedule played−5.8117th
Schedule remaining−3.582nd
Full schedule−4.9100th
Pregame expected wins2.1of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 122nd · −12.1Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMOSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Missouri Stateoff +0.12 51stdef +0.14 allowed · 115th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.