Missouri State
3–5 · Ours #122Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
22–34Our projected score
Jacksonville State
6–2 · Ours #77Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.JXST 77%
JXST 77%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. JXST −11.9
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 55.8
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Henry Belin IVSenior · 2 starts this year · 4 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1746th
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Caden CreelJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2920th
- Comp %
- 67.2
- TD
- 12
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Jacksonville Stateoffense | Offense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseMissouri State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28th | +0.17 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.14 | 114th |
| 21st | 49.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 45.9% | 122nd |
| 21st | +0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.21 | 119th |
| 54th | +0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 87th |
| 43rd | 13.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.4% | 84th |
| Missouri Stateoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseJacksonville State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.05 | 74th |
| 72nd | 42.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.2% | 79th |
| 51st | +0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.02 | 45th |
| 53rd | +0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.11 | 105th |
| 73rd | 12.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.0% | 54th |
Team stats
| Jacksonville StateJXST | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +0.949th | −4.1135th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +2.048th | −5.7131st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 59%17th | 49%87th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.9180th | 4.1661st |
| Time of possession | 24:24129th | 27:18104th |
| Plays per game | 61116th | 62104th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −2 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 15 – 13 | 14 – 13 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.1%88th | 14.8%53rd |
Season so far
Missouri State3–5 · 118th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
L
vs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4L
at SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5L
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1W
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5L
at Delaware38–61missed +3
at Delaware38–61missed +3W
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6Jacksonville State6–2 · 121st-hardest schedule
L
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5
at North Dakota State7–33missed +6.5Wvs Eastern Kentucky49–7covered −22.5
L
at Ohio27–29push +2
at Ohio27–29push +2W
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5
vs Georgia Southern31–27covered −3.5W
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no line
vs Middle Tennessee23–13no lineWat Kennesaw State27–26missed −3
at Kennesaw State27–26missed −3W
vs Florida International27–24push −3
vs Florida International27–24push −3W
at New Mexico State24–0covered −3
at New Mexico State24–0covered −3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is