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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Florida International

3–4 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−7.2
Rank
102
Résumé
106
Projected wins
5.4▲ 0.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at South FloridaUSFFIU +20.3FIU +13.5L 9–1947USF · L
Sat, Sep 129/12BuffaloBUFFIU −12.9FIU −10.5W 33–2060FIU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19at Florida AtlanticFAUFIU PKFIU +7.5L 10–1651FIU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Long Island UniversityLong Island UniversityFIU −33.7FIU −37.5W 20–363
Wed, Oct 710/7New Mexico StateNMSUFIU −7.3FIU −5.5W 22–354FIU · W
Tue, Oct 1310/13at Jacksonville StateJXSTFIU +4.5FIU +3.0L 24–2757JXST · Push
Tue, Oct 2010/20Middle TennesseeMTSUFIU −10.8FIU −10.5L 23–2653FIU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at LibertyLIBFIU +18.3FIU +14.0LIB −14.0Lean · +1.2%
Sat, Nov 711/7Missouri StateMOSTFIU −4.8—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at DelawareDELFIU +4.8—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Kennesaw StateKENNFIU −2.3—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Sam HoustonSHSUFIU −11.0—wk 13

Model on FIU games: 3–2–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 1–0 · home 2–2, away 1–0 · avg gap to the market +2.9 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.43–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.3
Bowl (6+)16%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.04121st
Success rate39.7%109th
Pass EPA+0.0199th
Rush EPA−0.10130th
Explosive rate12.3%77th
Quality-drive rate52.6%59th
Points per quality drive2.5136th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.129th
Success allowed36.9%25th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0926th
Rush EPA allowed−0.154th
Explosive allowed10.4%34th
Havoc rate15.4%42nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.186th
Turnover margin−6119th · exp. −2.5
Field position margin−0.8 yd88th
Hidden points / game−2.3gave up
Luck, wins−0.63.6 earned
One-score record0–3flipped 6–1
Rush rate over expected−2.2%76th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−7.2102nd
Schedule played−7.5128th
Schedule remaining−7.5111th
Full schedule−7.5124th
Pregame expected wins3.4of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 102nd · −7.2Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUFIUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Florida Internationaloff −0.04 121stdef −0.12 allowed · 9th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.