Missouri State
3–5 · Ours #122Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–29Our projected score
Florida International
3–5 · Ours #112Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.FIU 62%
FIU 62%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. FIU −4.9
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 52.6
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Henry Belin IVSenior · 2 starts this year · 4 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1746th
- Comp %
- 67.6
- TD
- 6
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
JJ KohlJunior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.01104th
- Comp %
- 56.8
- TD
- 10
- Turnovers
- 88 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Florida Internationaloffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseMissouri State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 126th | −0.05 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.14 | 114th |
| 106th | 39.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 45.9% | 122nd |
| 105th | −0.01 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.21 | 119th |
| 130th | −0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.07 | 87th |
| 96th | 11.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.4% | 84th |
| Missouri Stateoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseFlorida International | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | +0.12 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.06 | 27th |
| 72nd | 42.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 40.0% | 51st |
| 51st | +0.14 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.03 | 40th |
| 53rd | +0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.08 | 20th |
| 73rd | 12.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.8% | 43rd |
Team stats
| Florida InternationalFIU | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.185th | −4.1135th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −2.3109th | −5.7131st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 49%81st | 49%87th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.55136th | 4.1661st |
| Time of possession | 30:5430th | 27:18104th |
| Plays per game | 6852nd | 62104th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −7 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 18 – 11 | 14 – 13 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.7%55th | 14.8%53rd |
Season so far
Missouri State3–5 · 118th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
L
vs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4L
at SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5L
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1W
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5L
at Delaware38–61missed +3
at Delaware38–61missed +3W
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6Florida International3–5 · 108th-hardest schedule
L
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5W
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10L
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5Wvs Long Island University20–3missed −37.5
W
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7L
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3L
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10L
at Liberty10–49missed +14
at Liberty10–49missed +14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is