Week 8 report · Tue, Oct 20 · 2026 Week 8
Missouri State
3–5 · Ours #122 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–61FinalWe had MOST 24 – DEL 31
Delaware
4–4 · Ours #116 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.DEL 66%DEL won
DEL 66%DEL wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at DEL −2.5.DEL −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.9 · DEL covered by 20
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.8.54final 99 · over by 45
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.DEL −3Wmatched the close
DEL −3Wmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Henry Belin IV26/35 · 337 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1858th pct
- Comp %
- 74.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Nick Minicucci20/29 · 225 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6592nd pct
- Comp %
- 69.0
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missouri Stateoffense | Played like DEL +12.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseDelaware | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91st | 57.1%▲20.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 57.1%▼10.2 | 9th |
| 68th | +0.19▲0.19 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.09 | 32nd |
| 57th | +0.13▲0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.11 | 43rd |
| 82nd | +0.28▲0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.28▼0.12 | 18th |
| 4th | 3▼2.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.3 | 96th |
| Delawareoffense | defenseMissouri State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 50.8%▲10.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.8%▼4.2 | 21st |
| 95th | +0.49▲0.47 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.49▼0.35 | 5th |
| 91st | +0.61▲0.54 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.61▼0.38 | 9th |
| 89th | +0.36▲0.45 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.33 | 11th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missouri StateMOST | DelawareDEL | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2956th | Opp 49100th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.4 pts17th | +0.8 pts72nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4929th | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +2.257th | −2.243rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 372nd | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | +2.0 pts100th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. DEL +17.8: turnovers +5.2, field position +7.6, kicking +1.6, 4th downs +2.6, penalty first downs +0.8. | −17.81st | +17.899th |
Season so far
Missouri State3–5 · 118th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
L
vs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4L
at SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5L
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1W
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5Lat Delaware38–61missed +3
at Delaware38–61missed +3W
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6Delaware4–4 · 115th-hardest schedule
Wvs Merrimack42–7covered −31.5
L
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5W
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5L
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-game
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-gameL
vs Liberty14–30missed +7
vs Liberty14–30missed +7L
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1Wvs Missouri State61–38covered −3
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3Wat Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 20, 7:26 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is