Week 6 report · Thu, Oct 8 · 2026 Week 6
Missouri State
3–5 · Ours #108 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–34FinalWe had MOST 27 – WKU 29
Western Kentucky
3–5 · Ours #131 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.WKU 54%WKU won
WKU 54%WKU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MOST +2.MOST −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +1.4 · WKU covered by 22
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.1.56.5final 47 · under by 9.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MOST +2.5Lbeat the close by 3.5
MOST +2.5Lbeat the close by 3.5Quarterbacksthis game
Skyler Locklear12/24 · 89 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3312th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Relieved in Q3 by Henry Belin IV
Brock Glenn20/35 · 242 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1454th pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missouri Stateoffense | Played like WKU +10.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseWestern Kentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34th | 37.3%▼3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▲9.5 | 67th |
| 34th | −0.06▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.24 | 67th |
| 24th | −0.21▼0.33 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.21▲0.42 | 76th |
| 68th | +0.17▲0.19 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.10 | 32nd |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
| Western Kentuckyoffense | defenseMissouri State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58th | 44.0%▲10.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 44.0%▲3.7 | 42nd |
| 59th | +0.12▲0.34 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.08 | 41st |
| 58th | +0.14▲0.41 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.16 | 42nd |
| 58th | +0.09▲0.25 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.02 | 42nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missouri StateMOST | Western KentuckyWKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 226th | Own 3377th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts71st | +1.5 pts87th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 7591st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −11.019th | +11.081st |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 127th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts7th | +0.3 pts68th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. WKU +8.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +4.0, kicking +0.5, 4th downs +1.7, penalty first downs −0.8. | −8.116th | +8.184th |
Season so far
Missouri State3–5 · 118th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
L
vs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4L
at SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5Lat Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1W
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5L
at Delaware38–61missed +3
at Delaware38–61missed +3W
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6Western Kentucky3–5 · 80th-hardest schedule
L
at Nevada14–49missed PK
at Nevada14–49missed PKL
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-game
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-gameL
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5Wvs Mercyhurst52–7covered −40
L
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2Wvs Missouri State34–13covered +1
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1Wat Sam Houston16–3covered −1
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1Lvs Delaware21–35missed −1.5
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 8, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is