Week 7 report · Wed, Oct 14 · 2026 Week 7
Kennesaw State
2–6 · Ours #108 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
21–24FinalWe had KENN 28 – MOST 27
Missouri State
3–5 · Ours #128 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KENN 53%MOST won
KENN 53%MOST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KENN −3.KENN −2.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.1 · MOST covered by 5.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.5.52.5final 45 · under by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MOST +3Wbeat the close by 0.5
MOST +3Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Rickie Collins27/36 · 260 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2666th pct
- Comp %
- 75.0
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Henry Belin IV28/39 · 300 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.2263rd pct
- Comp %
- 71.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kennesaw Stateoffense | Played like MOST +0.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMissouri State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49th | 41.5%▼0.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.5%▲6.6 | 51st |
| 61st | +0.13▲0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▲0.07 | 39th |
| 68th | +0.24▲0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.24▲0.05 | 32nd |
| 38th | −0.04▼0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.14 | 62nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Missouri Stateoffense | defenseKennesaw State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.7%▲2.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.7%▲4.7 | 50th |
| 57th | +0.10▲0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.10▲0.01 | 43rd |
| 65th | +0.21▲0.17 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.05 | 35th |
| 38th | −0.04▼0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.11 | 62nd |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kennesaw StateKENN | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2419th | Own 3480th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −2.1 pts9th | +0.8 pts71st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6569th | 7285th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.041st | +3.060th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 9100th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.8 pts11th | −1.0 pts6th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. KENN +0.6: turnovers +2.6, field position −3.3, kicking −2.1, 4th downs +0.3, penalty first downs +3.1. | +0.652nd | −0.648th |
Season so far
Kennesaw State2–6 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs West Georgia47–0covered −21.5
L
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5L
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5L
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5L
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3Lat Missouri State21–24missed −2.5
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5L
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5W
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1Missouri State3–5 · 118th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
L
vs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4L
at SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5L
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1Wvs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5L
at Delaware38–61missed +3
at Delaware38–61missed +3W
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 14, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is