Week 9 report · Tue, Oct 27 · 2026 Week 9
Sam Houston
1–7 · Ours #130 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–24FinalWe had SHSU 24 – MOST 31
Missouri State
3–5 · Ours #128 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MOST 66%MOST won
MOST 66%MOST wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MOST −6.MOST −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −6.6 · MOST covered by 15
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.3.51.5final 27 · under by 24.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MOST −6W
MOST −6WThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sam Houstonoffense | Played like MOST +12.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMissouri State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31st | 36.7%▲2.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.7%▲12.2 | 69th |
| 31st | −0.07▲0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.30 | 69th |
| 37th | −0.06▲0.09 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.06▲0.40 | 63rd |
| 30th | −0.10▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.20 | 70th |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Missouri Stateoffense | defenseSam Houston | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42nd | 40.0%▲0.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.0%▲3.1 | 58th |
| 68th | +0.18▲0.18 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.19 | 32nd |
| 79th | +0.37▲0.35 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.50 | 21st |
| 53rd | +0.06▲0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.06▲0.03 | 48th |
| 79th | 0▲1.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Sam HoustonSHSU | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2418th | Own 2635th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6055th | 5540th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −8.625th | +8.675th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −1.0 pts8th | +0.4 pts75th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. SHSU 0.0: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.8, 4th downs −1.8. | 0.050th | 0.050th |
Season so far
Sam Houston1–7 · 95th-hardest schedule
L
at Troy21–24covered +16.5
at Troy21–24covered +16.5L
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5
vs Tulsa17–23covered +12.5Wvs Nicholls59–0covered −21
L
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5
at Texas Tech14–49missed +34.5L
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5
at Liberty3–35missed +13.5L
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1
vs Western Kentucky3–16missed +1L
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3
vs New Mexico State24–30missed +3Lat Missouri State3–24missed +6
at Missouri State3–24missed +6Missouri State3–5 · 118th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
L
vs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4L
at SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5Lat Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1W
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5L
at Delaware38–61missed +3
at Delaware38–61missed +3Wvs Sam Houston24–3covered −6
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is