Sam Houston

Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at JXST · Sat, Nov 7 · 7:00 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

1–7 FBS · Conference USA · this season

Rating

−17.3

Rank

131

Résumé

135

Projected wins

2.2▼ 0.7 vs preseason

CFP odds

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line

DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call

Sat, Sep 59/5

at TroyTROYSHSU +14.5SHSU +16.5L 21–2450SHSU · W

Sat, Sep 129/12

TulsaTLSASHSU +2.0SHSU +14.0L 17–2351SHSU · W

Sat, Sep 199/19NichollsNichollsSHSU −30.8SHSU −21.0W 59–097

Sat, Sep 269/26

at Texas TechTTUSHSU +29.2SHSU +38.5L 14–4939SHSU · W

Thu, Oct 810/8

at LibertyLIBSHSU +17.7SHSU +13.5L 3–3519LIB · W

Wed, Oct 1410/14

Western KentuckyWKUSHSU +3.3SHSU +1.5L 3–1646WKU · W

Wed, Oct 2110/21

New Mexico StateNMSUSHSU +2.6SHSU +3.0L 24–3045SHSU · L

Tue, Oct 2710/27

at Missouri StateMOSTSHSU +6.6SHSU +6.5L 3–2432

Sat, Nov 711/7

at Jacksonville StateJXSTSHSU +19.7—wk 10

Sat, Nov 1411/14

Kennesaw StateKENNSHSU +1.9—wk 11

Sat, Nov 2111/21

Middle TennesseeMTSUSHSU +2.9—wk 12

Sat, Nov 2811/28

at Florida InternationalFIUSHSU +11.0—wk 13

Model on SHSU games: 5–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 3–1 · home 2–1, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +4.1 · closer than the market 5 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations

Projected wins

2.21–7 banked, 4 to play · preseason 2.9

Bowl (6+)0%

9+ wins0%

11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture

Reach title game0%

Win conference0%

Make the CFP0%

First-round bye0%

Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS

rank of 138

Offense

EPA per play−0.09133rd

Success rate37.4%127th

Pass EPA−0.06116th

Rush EPA−0.15135th

Explosive rate9.6%131st

Quality-drive rate38.2%132nd

Points per quality drive2.6134th

Defense

EPA allowed−0.0529th

Success allowed39.1%41st

Pass EPA allowed−0.1812th

Rush EPA allowed+0.0575th

Explosive allowed12.5%85th

Havoc rate18.1%10th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board

rank of 138

Special teams & luck

Special teams EPA / game−2.0116th

Turnover margin072nd · exp. +2.5

Field position margin−0.8 yd89th

Hidden points / game−3.7gave up

Luck, wins−0.91.9 earned

One-score record0–3flipped 4–4

Rush rate over expected−8.6%129th

Overall

Rating, pts vs average−17.3131st

Schedule played−4.397th

Schedule remaining−7.8115th

Full schedule−5.5110th

Pregame expected wins2.8of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll

Ours 131st · −17.3Week 9

Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset

Sam Houstonoff −0.09 133rddef −0.05 allowed · 29th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.