Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Delaware

4–4 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−6.8
Rank
101
Résumé
101
Projected wins
6.3▲ 1.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3MerrimackMerrimackDEL −28.0DEL −31.5W 42–783
Sat, Sep 129/12at VanderbiltVANDEL +25.5DEL +20.5L 26–3540DEL · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Coastal CarolinaCCUDEL −7.7DEL −5.0W 22–1451CCU · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at VirginiaUVADEL +16.7DEL +22.0L 3–4213DEL · L
Fri, Oct 210/2LibertyLIBDEL +4.4DEL +7.0L 14–3038DEL · L
Tue, Oct 1310/13at Middle TennesseeMTSUDEL −4.6DEL −2.5L 30–3352DEL · L
Tue, Oct 2010/20Missouri StateMOSTDEL −6.9DEL −3.0W 61–3864DEL · W
Tue, Oct 2710/27at Western KentuckyWKUDEL PKDEL +1.0W 35–2171DEL · W

Model on DEL games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–3 · home 1–1, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +3.2 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.34–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.5
Bowl (6+)44%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game10%
Win conference3%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1447th
Success rate44.0%59th
Pass EPA+0.2232nd
Rush EPA+0.0297th
Explosive rate13.9%36th
Quality-drive rate46.0%98th
Points per quality drive5.14th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0887th
Success allowed46.0%123rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.0160th
Rush EPA allowed+0.17121st
Explosive allowed13.7%107th
Havoc rate14.5%66th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+3.29th
Turnover margin+256th · exp. −2.5
Field position margin+1.6 yd54th
Hidden points / game−0.3gave up
Luck, wins−0.34.3 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected−7.4%125th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−6.8101st
Schedule played−5.4113th
Schedule remaining−7.6112th
Full schedule−6.2115th
Pregame expected wins3.4of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 101st · −6.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUDELgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Delawareoff +0.14 47thdef +0.08 allowed · 87th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.