Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Jacksonville State

6–2 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−1.4
Rank
77
Résumé
30
Projected wins
8.7▲ 2.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29at North Dakota StateNDSUJXST +0.9JXST +7.0L 7–3324JXST · L
Sat, Sep 59/5Eastern KentuckyEastern KentuckyJXST −30.5JXST −22.5W 49–779
Sat, Sep 129/12at OhioOHIOJXST PKJXST +2.0L 27–2963JXST · Push
Sat, Sep 199/19Georgia SouthernGASOJXST −8.8JXST −3.0W 31–2769JXST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26Middle TennesseeMTSUJXST −8.8JXST −9.0W 23–1361JXST · W
Wed, Oct 710/7at Kennesaw StateKENNJXST −6.2JXST −3.0W 27–2653JXST · L
Tue, Oct 1310/13Florida InternationalFIUJXST −4.5JXST −3.0W 27–2443JXST · Push
Wed, Oct 2810/28at New Mexico StateNMSUJXST −5.6JXST −3.0W 24–077JXST · W
Sat, Nov 711/7Sam HoustonSHSUJXST −19.7—wk 10
Sat, Nov 2811/28at DelawareDELJXST PK—wk 13

Model on JXST games: 3–2–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 3–1 · as the dog 0–1 · home 2–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
8.76–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins21%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game86%
Win conference28%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1729th
Success rate49.0%19th
Pass EPA+0.2723rd
Rush EPA+0.1054th
Explosive rate13.7%42nd
Quality-drive rate59.2%18th
Points per quality drive3.980th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0572nd
Success allowed42.2%79th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0245th
Rush EPA allowed+0.11106th
Explosive allowed11.0%57th
Havoc rate13.1%86th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.951st
Turnover margin−294th · exp. −2.0
Field position margin+2.0 yd49th
Hidden points / game−1.6gave up
Luck, wins+0.95.1 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 4–4
Rush rate over expected+1.5%41st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−1.477th
Schedule played−6.0119th
Schedule remaining−12.2134th
Full schedule−8.3130th
Pregame expected wins4.6of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 77th · −1.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUJXSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Jacksonville Stateoff +0.17 29thdef +0.05 allowed · 72nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.