Week 1 report · Sat, Sep 5 · 2026 Week 1
Missouri State
3–5 · Ours #101 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–50FinalWe had MOST 12 – TA&M 45
AP #8Texas A&M
4–4 · Ours #10 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.TA&M 97%TA&M won
TA&M 97%TA&M wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at TA&M −41.5.TA&M −40.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −32.1 · TA&M covered by 9.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.9.53.5final 50 · under by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MOST +41Lbeat the close by 0.5
MOST +41Lbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Skyler Locklear8/17 · 30 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.761st pct
- Comp %
- 47.1
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Marcel Reed21/30 · 233 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3272nd pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Relieved in Q4 by Brady Hart
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missouri Stateoffense | Played like TA&M +42.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseTexas A&M | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | 17.4%▼26.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 17.4%▲25.1 | 98th |
| 2nd | −0.53▼0.64 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.53▲0.57 | 98th |
| 5th | −0.60▼0.78 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.60▲0.77 | 95th |
| 4th | −0.45▼0.53 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.45▲0.37 | 96th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
| Texas A&Moffense | defenseMissouri State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87th | 54.0%▲16.8 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 54.0%▼8.0 | 13th |
| 72nd | +0.21▲0.32 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.03 | 28th |
| 74th | +0.32▲0.51 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.05 | 26th |
| 58th | +0.09▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.02 | 42nd |
| 41st | 1▲0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missouri StateMOST | Texas A&MTA&M | |
|---|---|---|
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 231st | 6363rd |
Season so far
Missouri State3–5 · 118th-hardest schedule
Lat Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
L
vs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4L
at SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5L
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1W
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5L
at Delaware38–61missed +3
at Delaware38–61missed +3W
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6Texas A&M4–4 · 14th-hardest schedule
Wvs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5
vs Missouri State50–0covered −40.5W
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5
vs Arizona State48–20covered −14.5L
vs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5
vs Kentucky21–31missed −16.5L
at LSU6–35missed +8.5
at LSU6–35missed +8.5W
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5
vs Arkansas34–7covered −13.5L
at Missouri6–27missed +3.5
at Missouri6–27missed +3.5Wvs The Citadel41–0missed −45.5
L
at Alabama20–31covered +13.5
at Alabama20–31covered +13.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 5, 5:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is