Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Marshall
5–3 · Ours #122 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–24FinalWe had MRSH 30 – MOST 26
Missouri State
3–5 · Ours #111 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MRSH 60%MRSH won
MRSH 60%MRSH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MRSH −3.5.MRSH −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −3.9 · MRSH covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.6.52.5final 54 · over by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MOST +3Llost 1.0 to the close
MOST +3Llost 1.0 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Khalil Wilkins1/1 · 21 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +1.24
- Comp %
- 100.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Skyler Locklear19/28 · 309 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6492nd pct
- Comp %
- 67.9
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Marshalloffense | Played like MOST +8.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMissouri State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | 49.3%▲6.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.3%▼2.5 | 24th |
| 79th | +0.27▲0.25 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.11 | 22nd |
| 79th | +0.37▲0.43 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.37▼0.11 | 21st |
| 75th | +0.21▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.16 | 26th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Missouri Stateoffense | defenseMarshall | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89th | 55.4%▲18.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 55.4%▼13.1 | 12th |
| 90th | +0.41▲0.45 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.41▼0.30 | 10th |
| 94th | +0.66▲0.68 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.66▼0.49 | 6th |
| 74th | +0.21▲0.24 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.19 | 27th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MarshallMRSH | Missouri StateMOST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2845th | Own 2311th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.2 pts80th | −2.5 pts5th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6978th | 6569th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.340th | +3.360th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts75th | −0.4 pts29th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MRSH +4.7: field position +1.8, kicking +2.6, 4th downs +1.0, penalty first downs −0.8. | +4.772nd | −4.729th |
Season so far
Marshall5–3 · 122nd-hardest schedule
L
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5W
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-game
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-gameWat Missouri State30–24covered −4
at Missouri State30–24covered −4Wvs Gardner-Webb36–35missed −24.5
L
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5L
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5W
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3Missouri State3–5 · 118th-hardest schedule
L
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5
at Texas A&M0–50missed +40.5Wvs Lindenwood48–14covered −16.5
Lvs Marshall24–30missed +4
vs Marshall24–30missed +4L
at SMU24–34covered +30.5
at SMU24–34covered +30.5L
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1
at Western Kentucky13–34missed −1W
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5
vs Kennesaw State24–21covered +2.5L
at Delaware38–61missed +3
at Delaware38–61missed +3W
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6
vs Sam Houston24–3covered −6Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is