Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Western Kentucky
3–5 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−12.6
Rank
123
Résumé
110
Projected wins
4.8▼ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on WKU games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–3 · home 0–0, away 3–4 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 4 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
4.83–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.2
Bowl (6+)3%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 1.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game3%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.08131st
Success rate38.6%118th
Pass EPA−0.10121st
Rush EPA−0.05122nd
Explosive rate10.7%111th
Quality-drive rate44.9%103rd
Points per quality drive2.7133rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0573rd
Success allowed41.9%74th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0573rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0579th
Explosive allowed14.0%115th
Havoc rate13.0%90th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.372nd
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −3.5
Field position margin−4.9 yd129th
Hidden points / game−3.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.03.0 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−2.8%85th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.6123rd
Schedule played−2.084th
Schedule remaining−4.188th
Full schedule−2.781st
Pregame expected wins3.7of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 123rd · −12.6Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Western Kentuckyoff −0.08 131stdef +0.05 allowed · 73rd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Western Kentuckyoff −0.08 131stdef +0.05 allowed · 73rd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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