Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Western Kentucky

3–5 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−12.6
Rank
123
Résumé
110
Projected wins
4.8▼ 0.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at NevadaNEVWKU −3.3WKU −2.5L 14–4924WKU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12at GeorgiaUGAWKU +37.5WKU +40.0L 20–702WKU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at IndianaIUWKU +37.4WKU +44.5L 0–3818WKU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26MercyhurstMercyhurstWKU −31.4WKU −40.0W 52–797
Thu, Oct 110/1at New Mexico StateNMSUWKU −2.1WKU +2.5L 13–3441WKU · L
Thu, Oct 810/8Missouri StateMOSTWKU −1.4WKU −2.5W 34–1363MOST · L
Wed, Oct 1410/14at Sam HoustonSHSUWKU −3.3WKU −1.5W 16–354WKU · W
Tue, Oct 2710/27DelawareDELWKU PKWKU −1.0L 21–3530DEL · W
Sat, Nov 2111/21at LibertyLIBWKU +18.2—wk 12

Model on WKU games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–1 · as the dog 2–3 · home 0–0, away 3–4 · avg gap to the market +3.3 · closer than the market 4 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.83–5 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.2
Bowl (6+)3%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game3%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.08131st
Success rate38.6%118th
Pass EPA−0.10121st
Rush EPA−0.05122nd
Explosive rate10.7%111th
Quality-drive rate44.9%103rd
Points per quality drive2.7133rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0573rd
Success allowed41.9%74th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0573rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.0579th
Explosive allowed14.0%115th
Havoc rate13.0%90th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.372nd
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −3.5
Field position margin−4.9 yd129th
Hidden points / game−3.0gave up
Luck, wins+0.03.0 earned
One-score record0–0
Rush rate over expected−2.8%85th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−12.6123rd
Schedule played−2.084th
Schedule remaining−4.188th
Full schedule−2.781st
Pregame expected wins3.7of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 123rd · −12.6Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWKUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Western Kentuckyoff −0.08 131stdef +0.05 allowed · 73rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.