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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Middle Tennessee

4–4 FBS · Conference USA · this season
Rating
−13.6
Rank
127
Résumé
91
Projected wins
5.6▲ 1.5 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Murray StateMurray StateMTSU −26.9MTSU −22.5W 38–1455
Sat, Sep 129/12at MarshallMRSHMTSU +8.5MTSU +15.0L 26–2838MTSU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19NevadaNEVMTSU PKMTSU +6.0W 27–2064MTSU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Jacksonville StateJXSTMTSU +8.8MTSU +9.0L 13–2340JXST · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at KansasKUMTSU +19.2MTSU +18.5L 0–5510KU · W
Tue, Oct 1310/13DelawareDELMTSU +4.6MTSU +2.5W 33–3048DEL · L
Tue, Oct 2010/20at Florida InternationalFIUMTSU +10.8MTSU +10.5W 26–2347FIU · L
Wed, Oct 2810/28Kennesaw StateKENNMTSU −3.4MTSU −3.0L 28–4428MTSU · L
Sat, Nov 711/7Western KentuckyWKUMTSU +1.9—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at LibertyLIBMTSU +22.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Sam HoustonSHSUMTSU −2.9—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28New Mexico StateNMSUMTSU −0.9—wk 13

Model on MTSU games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–3 · as the dog 2–0 · home 3–2, away 1–1 · avg gap to the market +3.1 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.64–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.1
Bowl (6+)18%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.00106th
Success rate40.9%94th
Pass EPA−0.00102nd
Rush EPA+0.01102nd
Explosive rate11.8%92nd
Quality-drive rate44.8%104th
Points per quality drive3.983rd
Defense
EPA allowed+0.14116th
Success allowed46.8%129th
Pass EPA allowed+0.1193rd
Rush EPA allowed+0.17123rd
Explosive allowed14.3%120th
Havoc rate10.2%134th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.8100th
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +3.0
Field position margin−1.3 yd94th
Hidden points / game+0.6banked
Luck, wins+0.43.6 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 2–6
Rush rate over expected−4.8%107th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−13.6127th
Schedule played−4.8106th
Schedule remaining−8.8122nd
Full schedule−6.3116th
Pregame expected wins2.8of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 127th · −13.6Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUMTSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Middle Tennesseeoff +0.00 106thdef +0.14 allowed · 116th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.