Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
Middle Tennessee
4–4 · Ours #116 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
0–55FinalWe had MTSU 18 – KU 38
Kansas
3–5 · Ours #68 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KU 88%KU won
KU 88%KU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KU −20.KU −21oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −19.2 · KU covered by 34
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.0.51final 55 · over by 4
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.KU −18.5Wbeat the close by 2.5
KU −18.5Wbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Roman Gagliano9/26 · 81 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.467th pct
- Comp %
- 34.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Isaiah Marshall13/22 · 161 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0848th pct
- Comp %
- 59.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | Played like KU +48.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd | 16.7%▼24.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 16.7%▲24.5 | 98th |
| 2nd | −0.54▼0.56 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.54▲0.58 | 98th |
| 5th | −0.56▼0.59 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.56▲0.63 | 95th |
| 3rd | −0.52▼0.52 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.52▲0.53 | 97th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Kansasoffense | defenseMiddle Tennessee | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 59.6%▲23.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.6%▼14.2 | 7th |
| 83rd | +0.32▲0.37 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.32▼0.22 | 17th |
| 43rd | −0.01▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.13 | 57th |
| 95th | +0.52▲0.62 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.52▼0.43 | 5th |
| 79th | 0▲1.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | KansasKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2952nd | Own 2847th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +1.6 pts88th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 306th | 5745th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −52.31st | +52.3100th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | +0.6 pts85th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. KU +3.3: turnovers +2.6, field position −0.2, kicking +1.1, 4th downs +1.4, penalty first downs −1.5. | −3.333rd | +3.367th |
Season so far
Middle Tennessee4–4 · 112th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13W
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5L
at Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineLat Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21W
vs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1W
at Florida International26–23covered +10
at Florida International26–23covered +10L
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1Kansas3–5 · 30th-hardest schedule
Wvs Long Island University51–6covered −43.5
L
vs Missouri21–38missed +4
vs Missouri21–38missed +4L
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5Wvs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21L
at Utah24–41missed +16
at Utah24–41missed +16L
at Kansas State24–35missed +3
at Kansas State24–35missed +3W
vs Baylor25–24push −1
vs Baylor25–24push −1L
at TCU16–22covered +6.5
at TCU16–22covered +6.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is