Week 8 report · Tue, Oct 20 · 2026 Week 8
Middle Tennessee
4–4 · Ours #127 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–23FinalWe had MTSU 20 – FIU 31
Florida International
3–5 · Ours #92 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.FIU 75%MTSU won
FIU 75%MTSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at FIU −10.5.FIU −10oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −10.8 · MTSU covered by 13
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.6.46final 49 · over by 3
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.FIU −10.5Llost 0.5 to the close
FIU −10.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Roman Gagliano16/27 · 200 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1150th pct
- Comp %
- 59.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
JJ Kohl14/28 · 130 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1724th pct
- Comp %
- 50.0
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | Played like FIU +1.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseFlorida International | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 63rd | 45.5%▲8.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 45.5%▼4.1 | 37th |
| 41st | −0.01▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.01▼0.04 | 59th |
| 54th | +0.11▲0.18 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.08 | 46th |
| 31st | −0.09▼0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▼0.02 | 69th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.2 | 21st |
| Florida Internationaloffense | defenseMiddle Tennessee | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 43.1%▲4.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 43.1%▲5.0 | 45th |
| 46th | +0.03▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▲0.13 | 54th |
| 42nd | −0.02▲0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.14 | 58th |
| 54th | +0.07▲0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.07▲0.09 | 46th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Florida InternationalFIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3272nd | Own 3057th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +3.7 pts100th | −2.0 pts11th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 5848th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +1.454th | −1.446th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts42nd | −0.8 pts11th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MTSU +7.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.9, kicking +4.0, 4th downs +1.1, penalty first downs −0.8. | +7.883rd | −7.817th |
Season so far
Middle Tennessee4–4 · 112th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13W
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5L
at Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21W
vs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1Wat Florida International26–23covered +10
at Florida International26–23covered +10L
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1Florida International3–5 · 108th-hardest schedule
L
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5
at South Florida9–19covered +14.5W
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10
vs Buffalo33–20covered −10L
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5
at Florida Atlantic10–16missed +4.5Wvs Long Island University20–3missed −37.5
W
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7
vs New Mexico State22–3covered −7Lat Jacksonville State24–27push +3
at Jacksonville State24–27push +3Lvs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10
vs Middle Tennessee23–26missed −10L
at Liberty10–49missed +14
at Liberty10–49missed +14Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 20, 7:26 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is