Week 7 report · Tue, Oct 13 · 2026 Week 7
Delaware
4–4 · Ours #116 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
30–33FinalWe had DEL 30 – MTSU 25
Middle Tennessee
4–4 · Ours #129 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.DEL 62%MTSU won
DEL 62%MTSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at DEL −2.5.DEL −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −4.6 · MTSU covered by 4
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.9.48.5final 63 · over by 14.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.DEL −2.5Llost 1.5 to the close
DEL −2.5Llost 1.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Tyler Bell22/36 · 306 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1555th pct
- Comp %
- 61.1
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
Roman Gagliano24/34 · 299 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3071st pct
- Comp %
- 70.6
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Delawareoffense | Played like DEL +0.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMiddle Tennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.8% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.8%▲6.5 | 50th |
| 67th | +0.18▲0.11 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.05 | 33rd |
| 67th | +0.23▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.16 | 33rd |
| 56th | +0.08▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▲0.08 | 45th |
| 41st | 1▲0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | defenseDelaware | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50th | 41.7%▲4.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 41.7%▲7.8 | 50th |
| 63rd | +0.14▲0.24 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.14▼0.03 | 37th |
| 71st | +0.27▲0.38 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.27▼0.27 | 29th |
| 36th | −0.05▲0.03 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.26 | 64th |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| DelawareDEL | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2738th | Own 2415th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts63rd | +1.1 pts77th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6774th | 6055th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +0.752nd | −0.748th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 08th | 486th |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MTSU +7.9: turnovers +2.6, field position −1.1, kicking +0.4, penalty first downs +3.1, safeties +2.9. | −7.917th | +7.983rd |
Season so far
Delaware4–4 · 115th-hardest schedule
Wvs Merrimack42–7covered −31.5
L
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5
at Vanderbilt26–35covered +20.5W
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5
vs Coastal Carolina22–14covered −5L
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-game
at Virginia3–42missed +20QB change mid-gameL
vs Liberty14–30missed +7
vs Liberty14–30missed +7Lat Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1
at Middle Tennessee30–33missed −1W
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3
vs Missouri State61–38covered −3W
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5
at Western Kentucky35–21covered +1.5Middle Tennessee4–4 · 112th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13W
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5L
at Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21Wvs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1W
at Florida International26–23covered +10
at Florida International26–23covered +10L
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 13, 7:26 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is