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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at TCU · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Kansas

3–4 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+5.4
Rank
45
Résumé
88
Projected wins
5.7▲ 0.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Fri, Sep 49/4Long Island UniversityLong Island UniversityKU −30.9KU −43.5W 51–697
Fri, Sep 119/11MissouriMIZKU +5.8KU +6.5L 21–3827KU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Arizona StateASUKU +1.2KU +5.5L 17–2464KU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3Middle TennesseeMTSUKU −19.2KU −18.5W 55–091KU · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at UtahUTAHKU +16.7KU +15.0L 24–4144UTAH · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at Kansas StateKSUKU −0.9KU +6.0L 24–3534KU · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24BaylorBAYKU −2.4KU +2.0W 25–2456KU · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at TCUTCUKU +0.7KU +6.0KU +6.5Lean · +0.0%
Sat, Nov 711/7UCFUCFKU −10.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at West VirginiaWVUKU −6.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21BYUBYUKU +5.3—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at Oklahoma StateOKSTKU +1.9—wk 13

Model on KU games: 3–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 1–3 · home 3–2, away 0–1 · avg gap to the market +2.3 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.73–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 5.5
Bowl (6+)25%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.7 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0775th
Success rate41.5%88th
Pass EPA+0.0480th
Rush EPA+0.0961st
Explosive rate16.5%7th
Quality-drive rate57.7%27th
Points per quality drive3.4109th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0432nd
Success allowed38.5%36th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0055th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0720th
Explosive allowed11.5%68th
Havoc rate16.3%29th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.661st
Turnover margin−3101st · exp. −4.5
Field position margin−5.3 yd131st
Hidden points / game−1.7gave up
Luck, wins−0.33.3 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected+4.9%21st
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+5.445th
Schedule played+4.834th
Schedule remaining+4.949th
Full schedule+4.940th
Pregame expected wins2.8of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 45th · +5.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUKUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Kansasoff +0.07 75thdef −0.04 allowed · 32nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.