Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Nevada
3–4 · Ours #101 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
20–27FinalWe had NEV 27 – MTSU 27
Middle Tennessee
4–4 · Ours #118 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MTSU 50%MTSU won
MTSU 50%MTSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at NEV −6.NEV −3.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. PK · MTSU covered by 10.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.2.50.5final 47 · under by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MTSU +6Wbeat the close by 2.5
MTSU +6Wbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Carter Jones16/26 · 185 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2220th pct
- Comp %
- 61.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Roman Gagliano16/29 · 173 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1959th pct
- Comp %
- 55.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Nevadaoffense | Played like MTSU +8.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMiddle Tennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29th | 36.2%▼6.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.2%▲13.1 | 71st |
| 32nd | −0.07▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.24 | 68th |
| 30th | −0.14▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.27 | 70th |
| 42nd | −0.01▼0.23 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.19 | 58th |
| 4th | 3▼2.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 3▲2.2 | 96th |
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | defenseNevada | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 34th | 37.3%▼0.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.3%▼3.7 | 67th |
| 58th | +0.11▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.11▼0.20 | 42nd |
| 63rd | +0.19▲0.29 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.19▼0.26 | 37th |
| 50th | +0.04▲0.13 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.04▼0.14 | 50th |
| 79th | 0▲0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| NevadaNEV | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3164th | Own 3377th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.9 pts73rd | +1.4 pts84th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 6774th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.638th | +3.662nd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts32nd | +1.1 pts94th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MTSU +5.9: turnovers +7.8, field position +0.9, kicking +0.4, 4th downs +1.8, penalty first downs −0.8, return touchdowns −4.2. | −5.923rd | +5.977th |
Season so far
Nevada3–4 · 135th-hardest schedule
W
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PK
vs Western Kentucky49–14covered PKLvs Montana State7–20missed +4.5QB change mid-game
Lat Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5
at Middle Tennessee20–27missed −3.5L
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5
vs Air Force33–36covered +5.5W
at UTEP30–13covered −10
at UTEP30–13covered −10L
at North Dakota State17–31covered +14.5
at North Dakota State17–31covered +14.5W
vs San José State28–13covered −5.5
vs San José State28–13covered −5.5Middle Tennessee4–4 · 112th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13Wvs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5L
at Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21W
vs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1W
at Florida International26–23covered +10
at Florida International26–23covered +10L
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is