Board · Sat, Nov 7 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 10Week 10 report
Western Kentucky
3–5 · Ours #123Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
27–26Our projected score
Middle Tennessee
4–4 · Ours #127Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.WKU 55%
WKU 55%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. WKU −1.8
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 53.1
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Brock GlennJunior · 4 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.08116th
- Comp %
- 52.4
- TD
- 5
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
Roman GaglianoSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0971st
- Comp %
- 59.0
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseWestern Kentucky | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107th | 0.00 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.05 | 75th |
| 92nd | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.9% | 74th |
| 100th | 0.00 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.05 | 75th |
| 104th | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.05 | 79th |
| 90th | 11.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 14.0% | 115th |
| Western Kentuckyoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseMiddle Tennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 131st | −0.08 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.14 | 115th |
| 118th | 38.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 46.8% | 127th |
| 122nd | −0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.11 | 95th |
| 124th | −0.05 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.17 | 122nd |
| 113th | 10.7% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 14.3% | 119th |
Team stats
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | Western KentuckyWKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.8100th | +0.372nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −1.395th | −4.9128th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 45%104th | 45%103rd |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.8583rd | 2.69134th |
| Time of possession | 28:5464th | 29:5443rd |
| Plays per game | 62104th | 7211th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +3 | −1 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 8 – 11 | 11 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 10.2%134th | 13.0%91st |
Season so far
Western Kentucky3–5 · 80th-hardest schedule
L
at Nevada14–49missed PK
at Nevada14–49missed PKL
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-game
at Georgia20–70missed +40.5QB change mid-gameL
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5
at Indiana0–38covered +44.5Wvs Mercyhurst52–7covered −40
L
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2
at New Mexico State13–34missed +2W
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1
vs Missouri State34–13covered +1W
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1
at Sam Houston16–3covered −1L
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5
vs Delaware21–35missed −1.5Middle Tennessee4–4 · 112th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13Wvs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5L
at Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21Wvs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1W
at Florida International26–23covered +10
at Florida International26–23covered +10L
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 6:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is