Week 9 report · Wed, Oct 28 · 2026 Week 9
Kennesaw State
2–6 · Ours #124 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
44–28FinalWe had KENN 24 – MTSU 27
Middle Tennessee
4–4 · Ours #122 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MTSU 59%KENN won
MTSU 59%KENN wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KENN +2.5.KENN −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +3.4 · KENN covered by 15
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 51.4.50.5final 72 · over by 21.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MTSU −3Llost 4.0 to the close
MTSU −3Llost 4.0 to the closeThe matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kennesaw Stateoffense | Played like KENN +15.2Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMiddle Tennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80th | 51.1%▲10.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 51.1%▼4.3 | 20th |
| 67th | +0.18▲0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.05 | 33rd |
| 66th | +0.22▲0.26 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.22▼0.15 | 34th |
| 64th | +0.14▲0.18 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.14▲0.01 | 36th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | defenseKennesaw State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 44th | 40.4%▲2.9 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.4%▲6.3 | 56th |
| 21st | −0.14▼0.09 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.14▲0.30 | 79th |
| 11th | −0.41▼0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.41▲0.67 | 89th |
| 65th | +0.15▲0.26 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.15▼0.11 | 35th |
| 15th | 2▼1.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.5 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kennesaw StateKENN | Middle TennesseeMTSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3893rd | Own 3168th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 4727th | 89100th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +11.982nd | −11.918th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.3 pts33rd | −1.0 pts7th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. KENN +7.5: field position +2.4, 4th downs +1.0, return touchdowns +4.2. | +7.582nd | −7.518th |
Season so far
Kennesaw State2–6 · 82nd-hardest schedule
Wvs West Georgia47–0covered −21.5
L
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5
vs Georgia State17–31missed −7.5L
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5
at Tennessee9–42covered +35.5L
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5
at Arkansas State14–17covered +6.5L
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3
vs Jacksonville State26–27covered +3L
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5
at Missouri State21–24missed −2.5L
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5
vs Liberty6–34missed +9.5Wat Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1
at Middle Tennessee44–28covered −1Middle Tennessee4–4 · 112th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13W
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5Lat Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21W
vs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1W
at Florida International26–23covered +10
at Florida International26–23covered +10Lvs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 28, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is