New Mexico State
3–5 · Ours #124Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
25–26Our projected score
Middle Tennessee
4–4 · Ours #127Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.MTSU 52%
MTSU 52%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. MTSU −0.9
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 51.0
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Adam DamanteJunior · 3 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.16
- Comp %
- 57.5
- TD
- 4
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Roman GaglianoSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0971st
- Comp %
- 59.0
- TD
- 13
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 6
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseNew Mexico State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 107th | 0.00 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | 0.00 | 49th |
| 92nd | 40.9% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.0% | 66th |
| 100th | 0.00 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.01 | 54th |
| 104th | +0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | 0.00 | 54th |
| 90th | 11.8% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 12.2% | 81st |
| New Mexico Stateoffense | Offense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseMiddle Tennessee | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 128th | −0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.14 | 115th |
| 116th | 39.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 46.8% | 127th |
| 132nd | −0.19 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.11 | 95th |
| 77th | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.17 | 122nd |
| 78th | 12.2% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 14.3% | 119th |
Team stats
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | New Mexico StateNMSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.8100th | −3.2129th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −1.395th | −4.1122nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 45%104th | 44%109th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.8583rd | 2.90130th |
| Time of possession | 28:5464th | 26:12119th |
| Plays per game | 62104th | 6397th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +3 | −8 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 8 – 11 | 19 – 11 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 10.2%134th | 15.2%41st |
Season so far
New Mexico State3–5 · 111th-hardest schedule
L
at Florida State17–34covered +31
at Florida State17–34covered +31Wvs Mercyhurst51–14covered −29
L
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5
at Hawai'i19–29missed +7.5L
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5
vs New Mexico18–42missed +11.5W
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2
vs Western Kentucky34–13covered −2L
at Florida International3–22missed +7
at Florida International3–22missed +7W
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3
at Sam Houston30–24covered −3L
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3
vs Jacksonville State0–24missed +3Middle Tennessee4–4 · 112th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
L
at Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13W
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5Lat Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21W
vs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1Wat Florida International26–23covered +10
at Florida International26–23covered +10L
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is