Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Middle Tennessee
4–4 · Ours #122 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
26–28FinalWe had MTSU 25 – MRSH 33
Marshall
5–3 · Ours #118 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MRSH 70%MRSH won
MRSH 70%MRSH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MRSH −17.5.MRSH −13oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −8.5 · MTSU covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.5.55.5final 54 · under by 1.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.MTSU +15Wbeat the close by 2.0
MTSU +15Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Roman Gagliano25/47 · 243 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0534th pct
- Comp %
- 53.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Zion Turner5/9 · 66 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.28
- Comp %
- 55.6
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Replaced Khalil Wilkins in Q3
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Middle Tennesseeoffense | Played like MRSH +7.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseMarshall | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54th | 42.6%▲5.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.6%▲2.3 | 46th |
| 36th | −0.04▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.24 | 65th |
| 39th | −0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.05▲0.35 | 62nd |
| 39th | −0.04▲0.04 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.10 | 61st |
| 41st | 1▼0.5 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.4 | 59th |
| Marshalloffense | defenseMiddle Tennessee | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 53rd | 42.4%▼2.0 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.4%▲5.8 | 47th |
| 60th | +0.12▲0.06 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.02 | 40th |
| 55th | +0.12▲0.13 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.03 | 45th |
| 61st | +0.12▼0.01 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▲0.04 | 39th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼1.3 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Middle TennesseeMTSU | MarshallMRSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2739th | Own 3271st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.2 pts52nd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.431st | +6.470th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 372nd |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts87th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MRSH +0.7: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.8, kicking −0.1, 4th downs −0.9, penalty first downs +1.5, return touchdowns −4.2. | −0.747th | +0.753rd |
Season so far
Middle Tennessee4–4 · 112th-hardest schedule
Wvs Murray State38–14covered −22.5
Lat Marshall26–28covered +13
at Marshall26–28covered +13W
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5
vs Nevada27–20covered +3.5L
at Jacksonville State13–23no line
at Jacksonville State13–23no lineL
at Kansas0–55missed +21
at Kansas0–55missed +21W
vs Delaware33–30covered +1
vs Delaware33–30covered +1W
at Florida International26–23covered +10
at Florida International26–23covered +10L
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1
vs Kennesaw State28–44missed +1Marshall5–3 · 122nd-hardest schedule
L
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5
at Penn State0–45missed +23.5Wvs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-game
vs Middle Tennessee28–26missed −13QB change mid-gameW
at Missouri State30–24covered −4
at Missouri State30–24covered −4Wvs Gardner-Webb36–35missed −24.5
L
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5
at James Madison17–45missed +15.5L
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5
vs Coastal Carolina21–27missed −4.5W
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5
vs South Alabama20–13covered +1.5W
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3
at Old Dominion36–23covered −3Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is