Week 2 report · Fri, Sep 11 · 2026 Week 2
AP #23Missouri
5–2 · Ours #21 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
38–21FinalWe had MIZ 31 – KU 25
Kansas
3–5 · Ours #43 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.MIZ 64%MIZ won
MIZ 64%MIZ wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at MIZ −6.5.MIZ −4oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.8 · MIZ covered by 13
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 56.3.51.5final 59 · over by 7.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.KU +6.5Lbeat the close by 2.5
KU +6.5Lbeat the close by 2.5Quarterbacksthis game
Austin Simmons19/29 · 292 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.6191st pct
- Comp %
- 65.5
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Isaiah Marshall13/30 · 168 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3412th pct
- Comp %
- 43.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 4
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Missourioffense | Played like MIZ +14.4Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32nd | 36.8%▼1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 36.8%▲1.1 | 68th |
| 72nd | +0.21▲0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.30 | 28th |
| 90th | +0.58▲0.46 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.58▼0.70 | 10th |
| 32nd | −0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.03 | 68th |
| 79th | 0▲0.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Kansasoffense | defenseMissouri | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | 29.7%▼11.3 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.7%▲8.0 | 87th |
| 25th | −0.11▼0.14 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.06 | 75th |
| 19th | −0.27▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.27 | 81st |
| 56th | +0.08▲0.12 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.08▼0.21 | 44th |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.0 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| MissouriMIZ | KansasKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3995th | Own 2631st |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −4.2 pts1st | −1.5 pts16th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6876th | 6466th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | +10.680th | −10.620th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.7 pts86th | +0.4 pts73rd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. MIZ +2.5: turnovers +5.2, field position +4.6, kicking −1.9, 4th downs +0.4, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns −4.2. | +2.563rd | −2.537th |
Season so far
Missouri5–2 · 23rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Arkansas-Pine Bluff54–14missed −55.5
Wat Kansas38–21covered −4
at Kansas38–21covered −4W
vs Troy27–17missed −27
vs Troy27–17missed −27L
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5
at Mississippi State24–31missed +3.5W
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5
vs Florida45–17covered +5.5W
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5
vs Texas A&M27–6covered −3.5L
at Ole Miss3–31missed +4.5
at Ole Miss3–31missed +4.5Kansas3–5 · 30th-hardest schedule
Wvs Long Island University51–6covered −43.5
Lvs Missouri21–38missed +4
vs Missouri21–38missed +4L
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5W
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21L
at Utah24–41missed +16
at Utah24–41missed +16L
at Kansas State24–35missed +3
at Kansas State24–35missed +3W
vs Baylor25–24push −1
vs Baylor25–24push −1L
at TCU16–22covered +6.5
at TCU16–22covered +6.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 11, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is