Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Utah

7–0 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+16.2
Rank
9
Résumé
3
Projected wins
10.6▲ 2.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
78%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3IdahoIdahoUTAH −32.8UTAH −37.5W 66–1481
Sat, Sep 129/12ArkansasARKUTAH −13.9UTAH −11.5W 43–1089ARK · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Utah StateUSUUTAH −33.5UTAH −27.5W 33–084UTAH · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Iowa StateISUUTAH −11.2UTAH −12.0W 31–1754UTAH · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10KansasKUUTAH −16.7UTAH −15.0W 41–2457UTAH · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at ColoradoCOLOUTAH −25.0UTAH −15.5W 27–2446UTAH · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24HoustonHOUUTAH −8.3UTAH −6.5W 21–1373UTAH · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at CincinnatiCINUTAH −13.1UTAH −7.0UTAH −7.0Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7BYUBYUUTAH −5.7UTAH −2.5wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at ArizonaARIZUTAH −2.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at TCUTCUUTAH −10.2—wk 12

Model on UTAH games: 4–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 4–1 · as the dog 0–1 · home 3–0, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +3.8 · closer than the market 5 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
10.67–0 banked, 5 to play · preseason 8.2
Bowl (6+)100%
9+ wins86%
11+ wins21%

The 5 games left add 3.6 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game80%
Win conference47%
Make the CFP78%
First-round bye42%
Win it all5%
  • A CFP bid: 84% with a win vs Cincinnati, 54% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Nevada over UCLA — swings a CFP bid between 77% and 81%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1544th
Success rate50.0%11th
Pass EPA+0.1843rd
Rush EPA+0.1146th
Explosive rate15.1%21st
Quality-drive rate56.9%32nd
Points per quality drive4.814th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1112th
Success allowed34.8%14th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0927th
Rush EPA allowed−0.155th
Explosive allowed9.5%19th
Havoc rate17.0%18th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.180th
Turnover margin072nd · exp. +0.5
Field position margin+4.1 yd29th
Hidden points / game+0.4banked
Luck, wins+1.15.9 earned
One-score record2–0flipped 5–2
Rush rate over expected−3.3%90th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+16.29th
Schedule played+1.458th
Schedule remaining+6.638th
Full schedule+3.851st
Pregame expected wins4.2of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 9th · +16.2AP 6thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUTAHgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Utahoff +0.15 44thdef −0.11 allowed · 12th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.