Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Arizona State
4–3 · Ours #35 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–17FinalWe had ASU 30 – KU 29
Kansas
3–5 · Ours #67 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ASU 53%ASU won
ASU 53%ASU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ASU −5.5.ASU −5.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −1.2 · ASU covered by 1.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 58.3.50.5final 41 · under by 9.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.KU +5.5Lmatched the close
KU +5.5Lmatched the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Cutter Boley11/23 · 95 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2121st pct
- Comp %
- 47.8
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Isaiah Marshall17/33 · 235 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0546th pct
- Comp %
- 51.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arizona Stateoffense | Played like KU +13.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17th | 31.8%▼8.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 31.8%▲6.9 | 83rd |
| 10th | −0.27▼0.27 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.27▲0.26 | 90th |
| 22nd | −0.24▼0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.26 | 78th |
| 11th | −0.29▼0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.29▲0.27 | 89th |
| 79th | 0▲1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.7 | 21st |
| Kansasoffense | defenseArizona State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39th | 38.9%▼0.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.9%▲2.5 | 61st |
| 37th | −0.03▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.03▲0.06 | 63rd |
| 50th | +0.05▲0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.05▼0.03 | 50th |
| 28th | −0.11▼0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.18 | 72nd |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.6 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Arizona StateASU | KansasKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3689th | Own 2419th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts70th | −1.0 pts23rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 7285th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −10.521st | +10.579th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.4 pts26th | −0.4 pts28th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 2100th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ASU +2.6: turnovers +7.8, field position +4.2, kicking +1.2, penalty first downs −2.3, return touchdowns −8.3. | +2.664th | −2.636th |
Season so far
Arizona State4–3 · 32nd-hardest schedule
Wvs Morgan State70–7covered −43.5
L
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5
at Texas A&M20–48missed +14.5Wat Kansas24–17covered −5.5
at Kansas24–17covered −5.5L
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5
vs Baylor19–55missed −3.5W
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21
vs Hawai'i30–12missed −21L
at Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-game
at Texas Tech25–53missed +16.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Kansas State28–17covered +1
vs Kansas State28–17covered +1Kansas3–5 · 30th-hardest schedule
Wvs Long Island University51–6covered −43.5
L
vs Missouri21–38missed +4
vs Missouri21–38missed +4Lvs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5W
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21L
at Utah24–41missed +16
at Utah24–41missed +16Lat Kansas State24–35missed +3
at Kansas State24–35missed +3Wvs Baylor25–24push −1
vs Baylor25–24push −1L
at TCU16–22covered +6.5
at TCU16–22covered +6.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is