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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: at TTU · Sat, Nov 7 · time TBD →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

West Virginia

5–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
−0.5
Rank
71
Résumé
58
Projected wins
5.8▲ 1.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Coastal CarolinaCCUWVU −9.8WVU −21.5W 31–2451CCU · W
Sat, Sep 129/12UT MartinUT MartinWVU −35.6WVU −41.5W 52–772
Sat, Sep 199/19at VirginiaUVAWVU +15.7WVU +9.5W 38–2762UVA · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Oklahoma StateOKSTWVU −7.5WVU +1.0L 24–4130WVU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Iowa StateISUWVU +9.8WVU +3.5L 42–4552ISU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10ArizonaARIZWVU +9.3WVU +3.0L 31–5241ARIZ · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17CincinnatiCINWVU +2.2WVU −2.0W 45–4248CIN · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at TCUTCUWVU +11.6WVU +8.5W 24–2047TCU · L
Sat, Nov 711/7at Texas TechTTUWVU +14.0—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14KansasKUWVU +6.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21HoustonHOUWVU +12.4—wk 12
Fri, Nov 2711/27at UtahUTAHWVU +22.4—wk 13

Model on WVU games: 2–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–3 · as the dog 1–2 · home 0–4, away 2–1 · avg gap to the market +5.5 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.85–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.0
Bowl (6+)20%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 0.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2022nd
Success rate42.8%70th
Pass EPA+0.2035th
Rush EPA+0.1915th
Explosive rate14.1%33rd
Quality-drive rate50.5%73rd
Points per quality drive4.819th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.23131st
Success allowed47.2%130th
Pass EPA allowed+0.35136th
Rush EPA allowed+0.10104th
Explosive allowed15.7%132nd
Havoc rate12.8%95th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.619th
Turnover margin+714th · exp. +5.0
Field position margin+1.4 yd58th
Hidden points / game+0.4banked
Luck, wins+0.64.4 earned
One-score record3–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected+17.1%5th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−0.571st
Schedule played+3.440th
Schedule remaining+10.515th
Full schedule+6.025th
Pregame expected wins2.7of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 71st · −0.5Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUWVUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
West Virginiaoff +0.20 22nddef +0.23 allowed · 131st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.