Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oklahoma State

5–2 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+6.8
Rank
37
Résumé
31
Projected wins
7.8▲ 5.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
4%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at TulsaTLSAOKST +3.6OKST −14.0L 10–2429TLSA · W
Sat, Sep 129/12OregonOREOKST +31.6OKST +22.5W 39–3153ORE · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Murray StateMurray StateOKST −34.1OKST −55.5W 59–093
Sat, Sep 269/26at West VirginiaWVUOKST +7.5OKST −1.0W 41–2470WVU · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10UCFUCFOKST −3.1OKST −9.5W 42–2859UCF · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at HoustonHOUOKST +12.2OKST +4.5L 32–3553HOU · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24ColoradoCOLOOKST −10.9OKST −13.5W 57–2449COLO · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Iowa StateISUOKST −5.2OKST −9.5ISU +9.5Lean · +2.7%
Sat, Nov 1411/14Texas TechTTUOKST +1.3OKST +15.5wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Arizona StateASUOKST −5.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28KansasKUOKST −1.9—wk 13

Model on OKST games: 1–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 1–3 · home 1–2, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +8.0 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
7.85–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 2.5
Bowl (6+)86%
9+ wins6%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game11%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP4%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
  • A CFP bid: 5% with a win vs Iowa State, 1% with a loss.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1827th
Success rate49.6%15th
Pass EPA+0.2722nd
Rush EPA+0.0767th
Explosive rate16.4%9th
Quality-drive rate64.5%7th
Points per quality drive4.259th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.11101st
Success allowed42.9%89th
Pass EPA allowed+0.17111th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0683rd
Explosive allowed10.9%50th
Havoc rate13.0%92nd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.926th
Turnover margin+256th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin−1.1 yd91st
Hidden points / game−0.0gave up
Luck, wins−0.35.3 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 5–2
Rush rate over expected−5.1%112th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.837th
Schedule played+1.950th
Schedule remaining+4.153rd
Full schedule+2.955th
Pregame expected wins3.0of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 37th · +6.8AP 24thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUOKSTgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Oklahoma Stateoff +0.18 27thdef +0.11 allowed · 101st

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.