Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Oklahoma State
5–2 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+6.8
Rank
37
Résumé
31
Projected wins
7.8▲ 5.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
4%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on OKST games: 1–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 1–3 · home 1–2, away 0–3 · avg gap to the market +8.0 · closer than the market 1 of 6
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
7.85–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 2.5
Bowl (6+)86%
9+ wins6%
11+ wins0%
The 5 games left add 2.8 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game11%
Win conference4%
Make the CFP4%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%
- A CFP bid: 5% with a win vs Iowa State, 1% with a loss.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
7 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.1827th
Success rate49.6%15th
Pass EPA+0.2722nd
Rush EPA+0.0767th
Explosive rate16.4%9th
Quality-drive rate64.5%7th
Points per quality drive4.259th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.11101st
Success allowed42.9%89th
Pass EPA allowed+0.17111th
Rush EPA allowed+0.0683rd
Explosive allowed10.9%50th
Havoc rate13.0%92nd
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.926th
Turnover margin+256th · exp. −1.0
Field position margin−1.1 yd91st
Hidden points / game−0.0gave up
Luck, wins−0.35.3 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 5–2
Rush rate over expected−5.1%112th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+6.837th
Schedule played+1.950th
Schedule remaining+4.153rd
Full schedule+2.955th
Pregame expected wins3.0of 7
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 37th · +6.8AP 24thWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Oklahoma Stateoff +0.18 27thdef +0.11 allowed · 101st
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Oklahoma Stateoff +0.18 27thdef +0.11 allowed · 101st
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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