Week 6 report · Sat, Oct 10 · 2026 Week 6
Kansas
3–5 · Ours #44 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–41FinalWe had KU 20 – UTAH 37
AP #12Utah
8–0 · Ours #5 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.UTAH 85%UTAH won
UTAH 85%UTAH wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at UTAH −15.UTAH −16oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −16.7 · UTAH covered by 1
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 57.1.50final 65 · over by 15
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.UTAH −15Wbeat the close by 1.0
UTAH −15Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Isaiah Marshall19/37 · 333 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3877th pct
- Comp %
- 51.4
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Devon Dampier23/30 · 238 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0241st pct
- Comp %
- 76.7
- TD
- 3
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kansasoffense | Played like UTAH +8.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseUtah | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35th | 37.9%▼1.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 37.9%▼3.1 | 65th |
| 47th | +0.03▲0.03 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.03▼0.17 | 53rd |
| 80th | +0.38▲0.49 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.38▼0.58 | 21st |
| 2nd | −0.59▼0.66 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.59▲0.56 | 98th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▼0.2 | 59th |
| Utahoffense | defenseKansas | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 84th | 52.6%▲2.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 52.6%▼17.4 | 16th |
| 60th | +0.12▼0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.19 | 40th |
| 39th | −0.04▼0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.04▲0.03 | 61st |
| 80th | +0.25▲0.16 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.25▼0.36 | 20th |
| 15th | 2▼1.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲1.7 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| KansasKU | UtahUTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3060th | Own 2418th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.6 pts63rd | 0.0 pts39th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 7895th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −7.628th | +7.673rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 9100th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts17th | −0.2 pts35th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. KU +0.6: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.1, kicking +0.4, 4th downs −0.6, penalty first downs −3.9. | +0.653rd | −0.648th |
Season so far
Kansas3–5 · 30th-hardest schedule
Wvs Long Island University51–6covered −43.5
L
vs Missouri21–38missed +4
vs Missouri21–38missed +4L
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5W
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21Lat Utah24–41missed +16
at Utah24–41missed +16L
at Kansas State24–35missed +3
at Kansas State24–35missed +3W
vs Baylor25–24push −1
vs Baylor25–24push −1L
at TCU16–22covered +6.5
at TCU16–22covered +6.5Utah8–0 · 57th-hardest schedule
Wvs Idaho66–14covered −37.5
W
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-game
vs Arkansas43–10covered −13.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5
vs Utah State33–0covered −26.5W
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5
at Iowa State31–17covered −7.5Wvs Kansas41–24covered −16
vs Kansas41–24covered −16W
at Colorado27–24missed −15.5
at Colorado27–24missed −15.5W
vs Houston21–13covered −6.5
vs Houston21–13covered −6.5W
at Cincinnati49–25covered −7
at Cincinnati49–25covered −7Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 10, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is