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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs ISU · Sat, Nov 7 · time TBD →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Baylor

5–3 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+10.6
Rank
21
Résumé
65
Projected wins
6.8▲ 2.2 vs preseason
CFP odds
2%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5at AuburnAUBBAY +14.1BAY +7.0L 16–1759AUB · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Prairie View A&MPrairie View A&MBAY −30.7BAY −37.5W 44–383
Sat, Sep 199/19Louisiana TechLTBAY −12.4BAY −17.5W 36–1958LT · W
Sat, Sep 269/26ColoradoCOLOBAY −12.7BAY −6.5W 23–1343BAY · W
Sat, Oct 310/3at Arizona StateASUBAY +1.8BAY +4.0W 55–1970BAY · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17TCUTCUBAY −8.2BAY −6.0L 6–1748BAY · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24at KansasKUBAY +2.4BAY −2.0L 24–2545KU · W
Fri, Oct 3010/30at UCFUCFBAY −2.0BAY −1.5W 41–981BAY · W
Sat, Nov 711/7Iowa StateISUBAY −13.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at BYUBYUBAY +10.3—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21Texas TechTTUBAY +1.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at HoustonHOUBAY +8.2—wk 13

Model on BAY games: 5–2 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–2 · as the dog 3–0 · home 2–2, away 3–0 · avg gap to the market +3.6 · closer than the market 1 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.85–3 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.6
Bowl (6+)63%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 1.8 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game4%
Win conference2%
Make the CFP2%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0399th
Success rate39.8%108th
Pass EPA+0.1160th
Rush EPA−0.08126th
Explosive rate12.6%70th
Quality-drive rate57.7%26th
Points per quality drive3.3118th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.1015th
Success allowed34.3%11th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0929th
Rush EPA allowed−0.119th
Explosive allowed10.2%30th
Havoc rate20.2%4th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+2.716th
Turnover margin−184th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin+5.8 yd16th
Hidden points / game+3.4banked
Luck, wins−0.55.5 earned
One-score record0–2flipped 7–1
Rush rate over expected−5.1%111th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+10.621st
Schedule played+1.653rd
Schedule remaining+8.828th
Full schedule+4.245th
Pregame expected wins2.9of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 21st · +10.6Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBAYgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Bayloroff +0.03 99thdef −0.10 allowed · 15th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.