Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
Kansas
3–4 · Ours #45Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–25Our projected score
TCU
3–4 · Ours #44Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.TCU 52%
TCU 52%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.TCU −6oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −0.7 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.45.5oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 48.6 · opened 47.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.KU +6.5-114 FanDuel53% to cover · +0.0% EV
KU +6.5-114 FanDuel53% to cover · +0.0% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Isaiah MarshallSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.0291st
- Comp %
- 53.3
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 77 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 11
Game Time Decision on the Game Day report
Jaden CraigSenior · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1651st
- Comp %
- 67.4
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 20
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| TCUoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseKansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 117th | −0.03 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.04 | 33rd |
| 78th | 42.0% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 38.5% | 34th |
| 60th | +0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | 0.00 | 53rd |
| 137th | −0.20 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.07 | 21st |
| 114th | 10.6% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.5% | 68th |
| Kansasoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseTCU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75th | +0.07 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | −0.09 | 17th |
| 87th | 41.5% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 34.5% | 13th |
| 82nd | +0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | −0.14 | 17th |
| 60th | +0.09 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.03 | 41st |
| 7th | 16.5% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 8.6% | 8th |
Team stats
| TCUTCU | KansasKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | +1.049th | +0.662nd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | +4.228th | −5.3130th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 57%30th | 58%27th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.00128th | 3.42109th |
| Time of possession | 32:0016th | 30:2435th |
| Plays per game | 6760th | 7118th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | −3 | −3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 15 – 12 | 13 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 13.9%77th | 16.3%28th |
Season so far
Kansas3–4 · 31st-hardest schedule
Wvs Long Island University51–6covered −43.5
L
vs Missouri21–38missed +4
vs Missouri21–38missed +4L
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5W
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21L
at Utah24–41missed +16
at Utah24–41missed +16L
at Kansas State24–35missed +3
at Kansas State24–35missed +3W
vs Baylor25–24push −1
vs Baylor25–24push −1TCU3–4 · 37th-hardest schedule
L
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5
vs North Carolina10–15missed −7.5Wvs Grambling63–7covered −44.5
W
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19
vs Arkansas State31–7covered −19L
at UCF13–21missed −3.5
at UCF13–21missed −3.5L
vs BYU10–17missed +6
vs BYU10–17missed +6Wat Baylor17–6covered +5
at Baylor17–6covered +5L
vs West Virginia20–24missed −11
vs West Virginia20–24missed −11Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is