Week 7 report · Sat, Oct 17 · 2026 Week 7
Kansas
3–5 · Ours #36 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–35FinalWe had KU 28 – KSU 27
Kansas State
4–4 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KU 52%KSU won
KU 52%KSU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KSU −6.5.KSU −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. +0.9 · KSU covered by 8
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.3.55.5final 59 · over by 3.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.KU +6Lbeat the close by 3.0
KU +6Lbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
Isaiah Marshall12/26 · 151 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0732nd pct
- Comp %
- 46.2
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
Avery Johnson14/24 · 209 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1757th pct
- Comp %
- 58.3
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Kansasoffense | Played like KSU +13.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKansas State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24th | 34.5%▼5.7 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 34.5%▲4.0 | 76th |
| 30th | −0.08▼0.10 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.13 | 70th |
| 36th | −0.07▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.19 | 64th |
| 32nd | −0.09▼0.08 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.10 | 68th |
| 41st | 1▲0.3 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲1.0 | 59th |
| Kansas Stateoffense | defenseKansas | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 46.7%▲3.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.7%▼10.5 | 33rd |
| 62nd | +0.13▲0.07 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.21 | 38th |
| 60th | +0.17▲0.10 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.21 | 40th |
| 61st | +0.12▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.12▼0.21 | 39th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| KansasKU | Kansas StateKSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2525th | Own 3273rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.4 pts59th | +2.3 pts97th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5848th | 7591st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −3.937th | +3.963rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 486th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.4 pts75th | −1.1 pts4th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 043rd | 192nd |
| SafetiesSafeties scored. | 049th | 199th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. KSU +7.3: field position +2.5, kicking +1.3, 4th downs −2.0, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2, safeties +2.9. | −7.319th | +7.382nd |
Season so far
Kansas3–5 · 30th-hardest schedule
Wvs Long Island University51–6covered −43.5
L
vs Missouri21–38missed +4
vs Missouri21–38missed +4L
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5W
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21L
at Utah24–41missed +16
at Utah24–41missed +16Lat Kansas State24–35missed +3
at Kansas State24–35missed +3W
vs Baylor25–24push −1
vs Baylor25–24push −1L
at TCU16–22covered +6.5
at TCU16–22covered +6.5Kansas State4–4 · 70th-hardest schedule
Wvs Nicholls71–3covered −41.5
W
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5
vs Washington State34–7covered −17.5W
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5
vs Tulane31–20missed −20.5L
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6
at Cincinnati26–31missed −6L
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5
vs Houston16–35missed −2.5Wvs Kansas35–24covered −3
vs Kansas35–24covered −3Lat Arizona State17–28missed −1
at Arizona State17–28missed −1L
at Colorado24–27push +3
at Colorado24–27push +3Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 17, 11:20 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is