Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Baylor
5–3 · Ours #40 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
24–25FinalWe had BAY 26 – KU 28
Kansas
3–5 · Ours #45 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.KU 56%KU won
KU 56%KU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at KU +1.5.KU −1oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −2.4 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 54.4.54final 49 · under by 5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.KU +2Wbeat the close by 3.0
KU +2Wbeat the close by 3.0Quarterbacksthis game
DJ Lagway20/31 · 236 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0930th pct
- Comp %
- 64.5
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Isaiah Marshall16/28 · 178 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.515th pct
- Comp %
- 57.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 22 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 5
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bayloroffense | Played like KU +3.7Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseKansas | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46th | 40.9%▲2.5 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 40.9%▼3.7 | 54th |
| 30th | −0.08▼0.13 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.04 | 70th |
| 35th | −0.09▼0.28 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.09▲0.08 | 66th |
| 34th | −0.07▲0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.07▲0.01 | 66th |
| 41st | 1▼0.2 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.5 | 59th |
| Kansasoffense | defenseBaylor | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 37th | 38.4%▼1.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 38.4%▼2.9 | 63rd |
| 42nd | 0.00▼0.01 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | 0.00▼0.09 | 59th |
| 17th | −0.31▼0.32 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.31▲0.28 | 83rd |
| 74th | +0.21▲0.27 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.21▼0.39 | 26th |
| 15th | 2▼0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 2▲0.7 | 85th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| BaylorBAY | KansasKU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3481st | Own 2846th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.0 pts22nd | −0.1 pts28th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6672nd | 8699th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −6.231st | +6.269th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.9 pts9th | +1.1 pts95th |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 043rd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BAY +4.1: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.1, kicking −0.7, 4th downs −2.6, penalty first downs −1.5, return touchdowns +4.2. | +4.169th | −4.131st |
Season so far
Baylor5–3 · 51st-hardest schedule
L
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5
at Auburn16–17covered +6.5Wvs Prairie View A&M44–3covered −37.5
W
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20
vs Louisiana Tech36–19missed −20W
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5
vs Colorado23–13covered −9.5W
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5
at Arizona State55–19covered +3.5L
vs TCU6–17missed −5
vs TCU6–17missed −5Lat Kansas24–25push +1
at Kansas24–25push +1W
at UCF41–9covered −2.5
at UCF41–9covered −2.5Kansas3–5 · 30th-hardest schedule
Wvs Long Island University51–6covered −43.5
L
vs Missouri21–38missed +4
vs Missouri21–38missed +4Lvs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5
vs Arizona State17–24missed +5.5W
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21
vs Middle Tennessee55–0covered −21L
at Utah24–41missed +16
at Utah24–41missed +16L
at Kansas State24–35missed +3
at Kansas State24–35missed +3Wvs Baylor25–24push −1
vs Baylor25–24push −1Lat TCU16–22covered +6.5
at TCU16–22covered +6.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 12:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is