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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

TCU

3–4 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+5.4
Rank
44
Résumé
86
Projected wins
5.0▼ 1.6 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Aug 298/29North CarolinaUNCTCU −10.8TCU −7.5L 10–1545TCU · L
Sat, Sep 129/12GramblingGramblingTCU −39.0TCU −44.5W 63–777
Sat, Sep 199/19Arkansas StateARSTTCU −17.0TCU −20.5W 31–774ARST · L
Sat, Sep 269/26at UCFUCFTCU −2.8TCU −2.0L 13–2147TCU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3BYUBYUTCU +8.7TCU +6.5L 10–1740BYU · W
Sat, Oct 1710/17at BaylorBAYTCU +8.2TCU +6.0W 17–652BAY · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24West VirginiaWVUTCU −11.6TCU −8.5L 20–2453TCU · L
Sat, Oct 3110/31KansasKUTCU −0.7TCU −6.0KU +6.5Lean · +0.0%
Fri, Nov 611/6at ArizonaARIZTCU +10.4—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Kansas StateKSUTCU −3.9—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21UtahUTAHTCU +10.2—wk 12
Thu, Nov 2611/26at Texas TechTTUTCU +6.9—wk 13

Model on TCU games: 1–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–4 · as the dog 0–1 · home 0–3, away 1–2 · avg gap to the market +2.1 · closer than the market 1 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
5.03–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 6.6
Bowl (6+)9%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 2.0 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.03117th
Success rate42.0%78th
Pass EPA+0.1158th
Rush EPA−0.20137th
Explosive rate10.6%113th
Quality-drive rate57.3%30th
Points per quality drive3.0128th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0918th
Success allowed34.5%13th
Pass EPA allowed−0.1417th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0341st
Explosive allowed8.6%9th
Havoc rate13.9%74th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.049th
Turnover margin−3101st · exp. −3.0
Field position margin+4.2 yd25th
Hidden points / game−2.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.83.8 earned
One-score record0–4flipped 7–0
Rush rate over expected−7.2%124th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+5.444th
Schedule played+3.737th
Schedule remaining+9.524th
Full schedule+6.421st
Pregame expected wins3.6of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 44th · +5.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUTCUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
TCUoff −0.03 117thdef −0.09 allowed · 18th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.