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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

UCF

4–4 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+0.1
Rank
66
Résumé
67
Projected wins
6.2▲ 1.8 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Thu, Sep 39/3Bethune-CookmanBethune-CookmanUCF −26.0UCF −43.0W 73–694
Sat, Sep 129/12at PittsburghPITTUCF +13.1UCF +7.5L 7–1247PITT · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Georgia StateGASTUCF −13.0UCF −20.5W 44–3070GAST · W
Sat, Sep 269/26TCUTCUUCF +2.8UCF +2.0W 21–1354TCU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at HoustonHOUUCF +8.5UCF +12.0L 17–2733UCF · W
Sat, Oct 1010/10at Oklahoma StateOKSTUCF +3.1UCF +9.5L 28–4241UCF · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24BYUBYUUCF +14.0UCF +6.5W 39–3155BYU · L
Fri, Oct 3010/30BaylorBAYUCF +2.0UCF +1.5L 9–4120BAY · W
Sat, Nov 711/7at KansasKUUCF +10.3—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14Arizona StateASUUCF −5.6—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20Iowa StateISUUCF −5.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at ColoradoCOLOUCF −5.2—wk 13

Model on UCF games: 3–4 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 1–3 · as the dog 2–1 · home 0–1, away 3–3 · avg gap to the market +3.9 · closer than the market 2 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.24–4 banked, 4 to play · preseason 4.4
Bowl (6+)38%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 2.2 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.0678th
Success rate41.3%91st
Pass EPA+0.0775th
Rush EPA+0.0677th
Explosive rate10.9%108th
Quality-drive rate44.0%108th
Points per quality drive4.530th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0575th
Success allowed41.8%73rd
Pass EPA allowed+0.17112th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0629th
Explosive allowed11.0%56th
Havoc rate14.0%68th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−1.1105th
Turnover margin+435th · exp. +2.0
Field position margin−1.9 yd100th
Hidden points / game−0.8gave up
Luck, wins+0.53.5 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 3–5
Rush rate over expected−3.5%93rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+0.166th
Schedule played+6.227th
Schedule remaining+0.866th
Full schedule+4.246th
Pregame expected wins3.6of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 66th · +0.1Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUUCFgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
UCFoff +0.06 78thdef +0.05 allowed · 75th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.