LockSZNTeam
Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs OKST · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Iowa State

3–4 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+1.8
Rank
59
Résumé
76
Projected wins
4.9▼ 1.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Southeast Missouri StateSoutheast Missouri StateISU −30.5ISU −30.0W 38–1074
Sat, Sep 129/12at IowaIOWAISU +15.6ISU +14.5L 13–1649ISU · W
Sat, Sep 199/19Bowling GreenBGSUISU −25.3ISU −22.5W 55–783ISU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26UtahUTAHISU +11.2ISU +12.0L 17–3147UTAH · W
Sat, Oct 310/3West VirginiaWVUISU −9.8ISU −3.5W 45–4249ISU · L
Fri, Oct 910/9at BYUBYUISU +13.3ISU +11.0L 10–2430BYU · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at ArizonaARIZISU +12.4ISU +10.0L 3–3924ARIZ · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31Oklahoma StateOKSTISU +5.2ISU +9.5ISU +9.5Lean · +2.7%
Sat, Nov 711/7at BaylorBAYISU +13.1—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14CincinnatiCINISU +1.2—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20at UCFUCFISU +5.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Kansas StateKSUISU +2.3—wk 13

Model on ISU games: 5–1 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 4–1 · as the dog 1–0 · home 3–1, away 2–0 · avg gap to the market +2.6 · closer than the market 4 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
4.93–4 banked, 5 to play · preseason 6.2
Bowl (6+)8%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game<1%
Win conference0%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.02102nd
Success rate38.4%119th
Pass EPA+0.0296th
Rush EPA+0.0299th
Explosive rate12.9%60th
Quality-drive rate39.5%129th
Points per quality drive4.070th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.0365th
Success allowed42.0%75th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0471st
Rush EPA allowed+0.0164th
Explosive allowed11.9%77th
Havoc rate12.7%98th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.083rd
Turnover margin+343rd · exp. +3.0
Field position margin−3.4 yd118th
Hidden points / game−1.1gave up
Luck, wins−0.33.3 earned
One-score record1–1flipped 3–4
Rush rate over expected+4.9%24th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+1.859th
Schedule played+6.825th
Schedule remaining+4.950th
Full schedule+5.926th
Pregame expected wins2.4of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 59th · +1.8Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUISUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Iowa Stateoff +0.02 102nddef +0.03 allowed · 65th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.