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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Cincinnati

5–2 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+3.4
Rank
50
Résumé
39
Projected wins
6.9▲ 2.1 vs preseason
CFP odds
<1%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Boston CollegeBCCIN −7.3CIN −7.5W 34–1552BC · L
Sat, Sep 129/12Western CarolinaWestern CarolinaCIN −32.1CIN −36.0W 62–1076
Sat, Sep 199/19Miami (OH)M-OHCIN −19.1CIN −14.5W 35–3171CIN · L
Sat, Sep 269/26Kansas StateKSUCIN +8.1CIN +7.0W 31–2656KSU · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at ArizonaARIZCIN +5.2CIN +7.0L 7–3420CIN · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17at West VirginiaWVUCIN −2.2CIN +2.0L 42–4552CIN · L
Sat, Oct 2410/24Texas TechTTUCIN +9.4CIN +10.5W 37–2447CIN · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31UtahUTAHCIN +13.1CIN +7.0UTAH −7.0Pass
Sat, Nov 711/7at HoustonHOUCIN +12.5—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14at Iowa StateISUCIN −1.2—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21ColoradoCOLOCIN −10.2—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28at BYUBYUCIN +14.1—wk 13

Model on CIN games: 1–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 0–2 · as the dog 1–3 · home 1–1, away 0–4 · avg gap to the market +2.4 · closer than the market 2 of 6

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
6.95–2 banked, 5 to play · preseason 4.8
Bowl (6+)63%
9+ wins1%
11+ wins0%

The 5 games left add 1.9 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP<1%
First-round bye<1%
Win it all<1%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

7 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2021st
Success rate46.3%38th
Pass EPA+0.1937th
Rush EPA+0.2013th
Explosive rate14.4%31st
Quality-drive rate53.8%52nd
Points per quality drive4.820th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.13109th
Success allowed44.2%106th
Pass EPA allowed+0.14102nd
Rush EPA allowed+0.12109th
Explosive allowed14.7%124th
Havoc rate13.4%83rd

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+1.927th
Turnover margin+94th · exp. +5.0
Field position margin+4.5 yd22nd
Hidden points / game+4.6banked
Luck, wins+0.54.5 earned
One-score record2–1flipped 4–3
Rush rate over expected+2.6%36th
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+3.450th
Schedule played+2.743rd
Schedule remaining+7.533rd
Full schedule+4.939th
Pregame expected wins2.0of 7

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 50th · +3.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUCINgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Cincinnatioff +0.20 21stdef +0.13 allowed · 109th

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.