Week 5 report · Sat, Oct 3 · 2026 Week 5
West Virginia
5–3 · Ours #76 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
42–45FinalWe had WVU 22 – ISU 31
Iowa State
3–4 · Ours #38 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ISU 73%ISU won
ISU 73%ISU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ISU −1.5.ISU −3oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −9.8 · push
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.9.53final 87 · over by 34
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ISU −3.5Llost 0.5 to the close
ISU −3.5Llost 0.5 to the closeQuarterbacksthis game
Michael Hawkins Jr.11/23 · 227 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.0545th pct
- Comp %
- 47.8
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
Jaylen Raynor19/27 · 264 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3374th pct
- Comp %
- 70.4
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 2
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| West Virginiaoffense | Played like ISU +1.9Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIowa State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55th | 42.9%▲1.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 42.9%▲0.2 | 45th |
| 85th | +0.33▲0.17 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.33▼0.33 | 16th |
| 49th | +0.05▼0.11 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.05▲0.07 | 51st |
| 95th | +0.52▲0.38 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.52▼0.63 | 5th |
| 41st | 1▼0.7 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.8 | 59th |
| Iowa Stateoffense | defenseWest Virginia | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 78th | 50.0%▲13.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 50.0%▼2.7 | 22nd |
| 82nd | +0.31▲0.35 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.31▼0.07 | 18th |
| 89th | +0.56▲0.65 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.56▼0.18 | 11th |
| 63rd | +0.13▲0.11 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.04 | 37th |
| 41st | 1▼0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| West VirginiaWVU | Iowa StateISU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 3164th | Own 2527th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | +0.6 pts63rd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 6363rd | 7693rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −2.044th | +2.056th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 594th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ISU +1.2: field position −1.9, kicking +0.4, 4th downs −0.4, penalty first downs +3.1. | −1.244th | +1.256th |
Season so far
West Virginia5–3 · 43rd-hardest schedule
W
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21
vs Coastal Carolina31–24missed −21Wvs UT Martin52–7covered −41.5
W
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5
at Virginia38–27covered +10.5L
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2
vs Oklahoma State24–41missed −2Lat Iowa State42–45push +3
at Iowa State42–45push +3L
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5
vs Arizona31–52missed +3.5W
vs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5
vs Cincinnati45–42covered −1.5W
at TCU24–20covered +11
at TCU24–20covered +11Iowa State3–4 · 18th-hardest schedule
Wvs Southeast Missouri State38–10missed −30
L
at Iowa13–16covered +14
at Iowa13–16covered +14W
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5L
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5Wvs West Virginia45–42push −3
vs West Virginia45–42push −3L
at BYU10–24missed +12
at BYU10–24missed +12Lat Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-game
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-gameModel cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 3, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is