Board · Sat, Oct 31 · 7:00 PM ET · Week 9Week 9 report
AP #24Oklahoma State
5–2 · Ours #37Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
31–26Our projected score
Iowa State
3–4 · Ours #59Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.OKST 63%
OKST 63%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.OKST −9.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −5.2 · openedThe DraftKings/FanDuel number captured in the hours after the week's lines opened on Sunday. −9.5
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.58oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 56.3 · opened 57.5
Our call · LeanCollege: our number and the price say the side is worth more than the vig, but the record at these lines is a coin flip, so it is a lean, not a play.ISU +9.5-102 DraftKings52% to cover · +2.7% EV
ISU +9.5-102 DraftKings52% to cover · +2.7% EVQuarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Drew MestemakerSophomore · 7 starts this year
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.2824th
- Comp %
- 65.0
- TD
- 19
- Turnovers
- 66 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 8
Jaylen RaynorSenior · 6 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.04111th
- Comp %
- 58.9
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 9
Connor Moberly started Week 8 · Out on the Update 2 reportThe matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| Iowa Stateoffense | Defense edge · 3 of 5 | defenseOklahoma State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101st | +0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.11 | 101st |
| 118th | 38.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.9% | 87th |
| 97th | +0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.17 | 110th |
| 98th | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.06 | 83rd |
| 60th | 12.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 10.9% | 49th |
| Oklahoma Stateoffense | Offense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseIowa State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27th | +0.18 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.03 | 67th |
| 15th | 49.6% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.0% | 78th |
| 22nd | +0.27 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 72nd |
| 67th | +0.07 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 63rd |
| 9th | 16.4% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.9% | 78th |
Team stats
| Iowa StateISU | Oklahoma StateOKST | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −0.083rd | +1.927th |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −3.4116th | −1.191st |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 40%129th | 65%7th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.0070th | 4.1858th |
| Time of possession | 29:3053rd | 29:3051st |
| Plays per game | 61116th | 7212th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +3 | +2 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 7 – 10 | 12 – 14 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 12.7%98th | 13.0%93rd |
Season so far
Oklahoma State5–2 · 52nd-hardest schedule
L
at Tulsa10–24missed −13
at Tulsa10–24missed −13W
vs Oregon39–31covered +24
vs Oregon39–31covered +24Wvs Murray State59–0covered −55.5
W
at West Virginia41–24covered +2
at West Virginia41–24covered +2W
vs UCF42–28covered −10
vs UCF42–28covered −10L
at Houston32–35covered +3.5
at Houston32–35covered +3.5W
vs Colorado57–24covered −13.5
vs Colorado57–24covered −13.5Iowa State3–4 · 25th-hardest schedule
Wvs Southeast Missouri State38–10missed −30
L
at Iowa13–16covered +14
at Iowa13–16covered +14W
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5L
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5Wvs West Virginia45–42push −3
vs West Virginia45–42push −3L
at BYU10–24missed +12
at BYU10–24missed +12L
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-game
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-gameModel cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 31, 1:20 PM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is