Week 2 report · Sat, Sep 12 · 2026 Week 2
Iowa State
3–4 · Ours #44 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
13–16FinalWe had ISU 20 – IOWA 35
AP #21Iowa
6–2 · Ours #14 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.IOWA 82%IOWA won
IOWA 82%IOWA wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at IOWA −14.5.IOWA −14oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −15.6 · ISU covered by 11
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 55.0.42.5final 29 · under by 13.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ISU +14.5Wbeat the close by 0.5
ISU +14.5Wbeat the close by 0.5Quarterbacksthis game
Jaylen Raynor10/19 · 117 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.1353rd pct
- Comp %
- 52.6
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Hank Brown21/30 · 191 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.0139th pct
- Comp %
- 70.0
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Iowa Stateoffense | Played like IOWA +4.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIowa | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14th | 30.2%▼10.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 30.2%▲2.6 | 86th |
| 21st | −0.15▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.04 | 79th |
| 56th | +0.13▲0.12 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.13▼0.13 | 44th |
| 10th | −0.30▼0.41 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.30▲0.06 | 90th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| Iowaoffense | defenseIowa State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40th | 39.0%▼3.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 39.0%▲4.8 | 60th |
| 24th | −0.12▼0.15 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.12▲0.21 | 76th |
| 43rd | −0.01▼0.04 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.01▲0.13 | 57th |
| 15th | −0.24▼0.28 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.24▲0.28 | 85th |
| 79th | 0▲1.4 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Iowa StateISU | IowaIOWA | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2418th | Own 3166th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +1.7 pts90th | +2.3 pts97th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5336th | 5951st |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −1.346th | +1.354th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | 0.0 pts50th | −0.7 pts15th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. IOWA +1.9: field position +2.4, kicking +0.5, 4th downs −0.9. | −1.939th | +1.961st |
Season so far
Iowa State3–4 · 18th-hardest schedule
Wvs Southeast Missouri State38–10missed −30
Lat Iowa13–16covered +14
at Iowa13–16covered +14W
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5L
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5W
vs West Virginia45–42push −3
vs West Virginia45–42push −3L
at BYU10–24missed +12
at BYU10–24missed +12L
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-game
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-gameIowa6–2 · 42nd-hardest schedule
W
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31
vs Northern Illinois40–0covered −31Wvs Iowa State16–13missed −14
vs Iowa State16–13missed −14Wvs Northern Iowa55–0covered −37.5
W
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5
at Michigan20–19covered +5.5L
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5
vs Ohio State14–31missed +14.5W
at Washington41–24covered +3
at Washington41–24covered +3L
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-game
at Minnesota10–13missed −7.5QB change mid-gameW
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5
vs Wisconsin30–0covered −2.5Model cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 12, 6:05 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is