Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Arizona
6–2 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+11.9
Rank
18
Résumé
28
Projected wins
9.3▲ 3.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
21%
Schedule
our line · the market · graded at the early week lineDateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Model on ARIZ games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 2–3 · home 2–0, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +4.1 · closer than the market 3 of 7
Outlook
from 10,000 season simulationsProjected wins
9.36–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.9
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins43%
11+ wins0%
The 4 games left add 3.3 expected wins.
Playoff picture
Reach title game30%
Win conference15%
Make the CFP21%
First-round bye4%
Win it all1%
- A CFP bid: 35% with a win vs Texas Tech, 5% with a loss.
- Scoreboard watch: root for Cincinnati over Utah — swings a CFP bid between 20% and 26%.
Full bracket on the playoffs page.
Offense and defense
8 games · rank of 138 FBSrank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2118th
Success rate49.7%14th
Pass EPA+0.3311th
Rush EPA+0.0583rd
Explosive rate14.8%28th
Quality-drive rate59.4%16th
Points per quality drive4.446th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0143rd
Success allowed35.1%17th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0149th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0149th
Explosive allowed10.0%27th
Havoc rate14.0%69th
Special teams, luck and schedule
through the latest boardrank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.952nd
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −4.5
Field position margin+0.9 yd69th
Hidden points / game+1.1banked
Luck, wins−0.46.4 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 7–1
Rush rate over expected−9.2%132nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+11.918th
Schedule played−0.473rd
Schedule remaining+6.040th
Full schedule+1.963rd
Pregame expected wins5.1of 8
Ranking by week
ours vs the AP pollOurs 18th · +11.9AP 22ndWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
Arizonaoff +0.21 18thdef −0.01 allowed · 43rd
Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.
Arizonaoff +0.21 18thdef −0.01 allowed · 43rd
Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.
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