Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Arizona

6–2 FBS · Big 12 · this season
Rating
+11.9
Rank
18
Résumé
28
Projected wins
9.3▲ 3.4 vs preseason
CFP odds
21%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Northern ArizonaNorthern ArizonaARIZ −31.5ARIZ −33.0W 35–783
Sat, Sep 129/12at BYUBYUARIZ +6.9ARIZ +7.5L 17–2838ARIZ · L
Sat, Sep 199/19Northern IllinoisNIUARIZ −29.6ARIZ −35.0W 42–1763NIU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26at Washington StateWSUARIZ +0.7ARIZ −13.0W 34–2465WSU · W
Sat, Oct 310/3CincinnatiCINARIZ −5.2ARIZ −7.0W 34–781CIN · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10at West VirginiaWVUARIZ −9.3ARIZ −3.0W 52–3159ARIZ · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24Iowa StateISUARIZ −12.4ARIZ −10.0W 39–377ARIZ · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Texas TechTTUARIZ −1.3ARIZ +3.5L 26–34—ARIZ · L
Fri, Nov 611/6TCUTCUARIZ −10.4—wk 10
Sat, Nov 1411/14UtahUTAHARIZ +2.0—wk 11
Sat, Nov 2111/21at Kansas StateKSUARIZ −7.5—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28Arizona StateASUARIZ −17.1ARIZ −4.5wk 13

Model on ARIZ games: 4–3 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–0 · as the dog 2–3 · home 2–0, away 2–3 · avg gap to the market +4.1 · closer than the market 3 of 7

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
9.36–2 banked, 4 to play · preseason 5.9
Bowl (6+)99%
9+ wins43%
11+ wins0%

The 4 games left add 3.3 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game30%
Win conference15%
Make the CFP21%
First-round bye4%
Win it all1%
  • A CFP bid: 35% with a win vs Texas Tech, 5% with a loss.
  • Scoreboard watch: root for Cincinnati over Utah — swings a CFP bid between 20% and 26%.

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

8 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play+0.2118th
Success rate49.7%14th
Pass EPA+0.3311th
Rush EPA+0.0583rd
Explosive rate14.8%28th
Quality-drive rate59.4%16th
Points per quality drive4.446th
Defense
EPA allowed−0.0143rd
Success allowed35.1%17th
Pass EPA allowed−0.0149th
Rush EPA allowed−0.0149th
Explosive allowed10.0%27th
Havoc rate14.0%69th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game+0.952nd
Turnover margin−184th · exp. −4.5
Field position margin+0.9 yd69th
Hidden points / game+1.1banked
Luck, wins−0.46.4 earned
One-score record0–1flipped 7–1
Rush rate over expected−9.2%132nd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average+11.918th
Schedule played−0.473rd
Schedule remaining+6.040th
Full schedule+1.963rd
Pregame expected wins5.1of 8

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 18th · +11.9AP 22ndWeek 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnBowling GreenAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUARIZgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Arizonaoff +0.21 18thdef −0.01 allowed · 43rd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.