Iowa State
3–4 · Ours #57Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
23–28Our projected score
UCF
4–4 · Ours #67Our rank on the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceHow often each team wins the game outright when we play it out thousands of times from our line.UCF 63%
UCF 63%SpreadThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. UCF −5.2
TotalThe betting line right now: the middle of the sportsbooks we track, updated through the day.—oursOur computer's projected combined score for both teams, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. 50.4
Our call · No priceNeither DraftKings nor FanDuel is offering our side at our number right now, so there is no price to judge.—
Quarterbackslast game's starter · most dropbacks in each team's last game
Jaylen RaynorSenior · 6 starts this year · 1 relief appearance
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- −0.04111th
- Comp %
- 58.9
- TD
- 8
- Turnovers
- 44 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 9
Connor Moberly started Week 8 · Out on the Game Day report
Keyone JenkinsSenior · 5 starts this year · 2 relief appearances
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback: passes, sacks (college play-by-play logs scrambles as runs). The rank is among the 128 FBS passers with 15+ dropbacks per team game.
- +0.1649th
- Comp %
- 67.3
- TD
- 11
- Turnovers
- 33 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 7
The matchupeach offense against the defense it faces · FBS rank in the colored cell
| UCFoffense | Defense edge · 5 of 5 | defenseIowa State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 75th | +0.06 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.03 | 66th |
| 90th | 41.3% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 42.0% | 75th |
| 74th | +0.07 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.04 | 72nd |
| 76th | +0.06 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | +0.01 | 65th |
| 105th | 10.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.9% | 76th |
| Iowa Stateoffense | Defense edge · 4 of 5 | defenseUCF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 102nd | +0.02 | Overall efficiencyEfficiencyExpected points added per play. FBS average: +0.08. | +0.05 | 77th |
| 119th | 38.4% | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that keep the offense on schedule. FBS average: 43.3%. | 41.8% | 73rd |
| 95th | +0.02 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback. FBS average: +0.09. | +0.17 | 112th |
| 101st | +0.02 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run. FBS average: +0.07. | −0.06 | 29th |
| 61st | 12.9% | Big playsBig playsShare of plays gaining 20+ yards passing or 10+ rushing. FBS average: 12.7%. | 11.0% | 53rd |
Team stats
| UCFUCF | Iowa StateISU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Special teamsSpecial teams expected points added per game. | −1.1105th | −0.083rd |
| Field positionAverage starting field position against the opponent's, in yards. | −1.9101st | −3.4118th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| Scoring chancesShare of drives that reach the opponent's 40. | 44%109th | 40%129th |
| Points per chancePoints scored per drive that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.5030th | 4.0071st |
| Time of possession | 28:3082nd | 29:3054th |
| Plays per game | 6491st | 61116th |
| Turnovers & havoc | ||
| Turnover margin | +4 | +3 |
| Giveaways – takeaways | 10 – 14 | 7 – 10 |
| Havoc rateShare of defensive plays with a sack, tackle for loss, interception or forced fumble. | 14.0%70th | 12.7%98th |
Season so far
Iowa State3–4 · 18th-hardest schedule
Wvs Southeast Missouri State38–10missed −30
L
at Iowa13–16covered +14
at Iowa13–16covered +14W
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5L
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5W
vs West Virginia45–42push −3
vs West Virginia45–42push −3L
at BYU10–24missed +12
at BYU10–24missed +12L
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-game
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-gameUCF4–4 · 25th-hardest schedule
Wvs Bethune-Cookman73–6covered −43
L
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7
at Pittsburgh7–12covered +7W
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5
vs Georgia State44–30missed −17.5W
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5
vs TCU21–13covered +3.5L
at Houston17–27covered +10.5
at Houston17–27covered +10.5L
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10
at Oklahoma State28–42missed +10Wvs BYU39–31covered +7.5
vs BYU39–31covered +7.5L
vs Baylor9–41missed +2.5
vs Baylor9–41missed +2.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 27, 7:26 AM EDT · freezes at kickoff and grades as-is