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Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTupdated
Board · Rankings · CollegeNext: vs KENT · Tue, Nov 10 · 7:00 PM ET →

Oct 31, 6:19 PM EDTstats the morning after a game; scores and grades the same night

Bowling Green

2–7 FBS · Mid-American · this season
Rating
−13.4
Rank
126
Résumé
136
Projected wins
3.4▼ 1.3 vs preseason
CFP odds
0%

Schedule

our line · the market · graded at the early week line
DateOpponentOur lineOursMarketResultPerf.Our call
Sat, Sep 59/5Tarleton StateTarleton StateBGSU −25.1BGSU −2.0L 13–2054
Sat, Sep 129/12at NebraskaNEBBGSU +28.1BGSU +28.5L 7–562BGSU · L
Sat, Sep 199/19at Iowa StateISUBGSU +25.3BGSU +22.5L 7–5517ISU · W
Sat, Sep 269/26South FloridaUSFBGSU +25.4BGSU +15.0L 6–1444USF · L
Sat, Oct 310/3at Miami (OH)M-OHBGSU +19.8BGSU +13.0W 24–2062M-OH · L
Sat, Oct 1010/10Sacramento StateSACBGSU −3.1BGSU −7.0W 38–1071SAC · L
Sat, Oct 1710/17Ball StateBALLBGSU −6.8BGSU −7.5L 31–3239BALL · W
Sat, Oct 2410/24at BuffaloBUFBGSU +5.1BGSU +4.5L 24–3143BUF · W
Sat, Oct 3110/31at Western MichiganWMUBGSU +17.9BGSU +14.0L 10–23—WMU · L
Tue, Nov 1011/10Kent StateKENTBGSU −4.4—wk 11
Fri, Nov 2011/20at ToledoTOLBGSU +19.4—wk 12
Sat, Nov 2811/28MassachusettsMASSBGSU −1.9—wk 13

Model on BGSU games: 3–5 ATS at the early week line · as the favorite 2–3 · as the dog 1–2 · home 2–2, away 1–3 · avg gap to the market +4.2 · closer than the market 2 of 8

Outlook

from 10,000 season simulations
Projected wins
3.42–7 banked, 3 to play · preseason 4.7
Bowl (6+)1%
9+ wins0%
11+ wins0%

The 3 games left add 1.4 expected wins.

Playoff picture
Reach title game1%
Win conference<1%
Make the CFP0%
First-round bye0%
Win it all0%

Full bracket on the playoffs page.

Offense and defense

9 games · rank of 138 FBS
rank of 138
Offense
EPA per play−0.02115th
Success rate40.9%95th
Pass EPA+0.1256th
Rush EPA−0.16136th
Explosive rate9.8%129th
Quality-drive rate44.4%105th
Points per quality drive3.4107th
Defense
EPA allowed+0.11102nd
Success allowed46.3%125th
Pass EPA allowed+0.0158th
Rush EPA allowed+0.19125th
Explosive allowed12.9%91st
Havoc rate13.4%84th

Special teams, luck and schedule

through the latest board
rank of 138
Special teams & luck
Special teams EPA / game−0.291st
Turnover margin072nd · exp. −5.5
Field position margin−2.7 yd115th
Hidden points / game−1.5gave up
Luck, wins−1.63.6 earned
One-score record1–4flipped 5–4
Rush rate over expected+3.6%33rd
Overall
Rating, pts vs average−13.4126th
Schedule played−5.1111th
Schedule remaining−10.1126th
Full schedule−6.4119th
Pregame expected wins3.0of 9

Ranking by week

ours vs the AP poll
151025Wk 0Wk 3Wk 6Wk 9
Ours 126th · −13.4Week 9
Where they sit · offense vs defensepinch or ⌘/ctrl + scroll to zoom · drag to move · double-tap to reset
−0.200.00+0.20FBS averageTCUNorth CarolinaUNLVMemphisStanfordHawai'iFlorida StateNew Mexico StateEastern MichiganSacramento StateNorth Dakota StateJacksonville StateVirginiaNC StateUSCSan José StateUCFDelawareKennesaw StateBuffaloMinnesotaMissouriUtahRutgersMassachusettsWake ForestAkronGeorgia TechColoradoIllinoisUABKansasGeorgia StatePurdueFresno StateMiamiMichigan StateToledoOklahomaUTEPColorado StateWyomingTroySam HoustonTexas A&MMissouri StateSouth AlabamaGeorgia SouthernSouth FloridaFlorida InternationalRiceUtah StateMiddle TennesseeArkansas StateVanderbiltTexas TechKansas StateVirginia TechMississippi StateUL MonroeLSUClemsonOld DominionLouisiana TechSouthern MissArkansasKentuckyIowa StateAir ForceTempleGeorgiaTennesseeApp StateOregonBoise StateCincinnatiBoston CollegeNavyUTSAPenn StateMarshallTexasTexas StateDukeTulaneTulsaOklahoma StateIowaNorthern IllinoisMichiganWestern MichiganFloridaFlorida AtlanticLouisianaAuburnBaylorNorthwesternBYUMarylandArizonaSan Diego StateNew MexicoCentral MichiganArizona StateSouth CarolinaKent StateNevadaWestern KentuckyCaliforniaUCLACharlotteOhio StateBall StatePittsburghMiami (OH)NebraskaOhioWest VirginiaCoastal CarolinaSyracuseUConnAlabamaEast CarolinaHoustonOregon StateIndianaNorth TexasJames MadisonLibertyArmyWashingtonWashington StateNotre DameWisconsinOle MissLouisvilleSMUBGSUgood offense, good defense →Offense EPA/play →better defense →
Bowling Greenoff −0.02 115thdef +0.11 allowed · 102nd

Every FBS team, through the latest board. EPA is garbage-time filtered. Tap a logo for its numbers.

Records and stats cover FBS-vs-FBS games only — the games the model grades. Rate stats exclude garbage time (a lead of 38+ in the first half, 28+ in the third quarter, 22+ in the fourth); turnovers are counted whole. Hover a row for its definition.