Week 3 report · Sat, Sep 19 · 2026 Week 3
Bowling Green
2–7 · Ours #138 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
7–55FinalWe had BGSU 10 – ISU 35
Iowa State
3–4 · Ours #33 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ISU 94%ISU won
ISU 94%ISU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ISU −23.ISU −23.5oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −25.3 · ISU covered by 24.5
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 45.0.43.5final 62 · over by 18.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ISU −22.5Wbeat the close by 1.0
ISU −22.5Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Jay Kastantin8/17 · 86 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.1327th pct
- Comp %
- 47.1
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
Relieved in Q3 by Austin Novosad
Jaylen Raynor11/17 · 133 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.2517th pct
- Comp %
- 64.7
- TD
- 1
- Turnovers
- 11 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bowling Greenoffense | Played like ISU +32.0Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseIowa State | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12th | 29.0%▼11.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.0%▲16.8 | 89th |
| 26th | −0.11▼0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.20 | 74th |
| 31st | −0.13▼0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.13▲0.28 | 69th |
| 32nd | −0.08▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.08▲0.09 | 68th |
| 41st | 1 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.8 | 59th |
| Iowa Stateoffense | defenseBowling Green | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93rd | 59.4%▲24.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 59.4%▼13.0 | 7th |
| 92nd | +0.43▲0.50 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.43▼0.34 | 8th |
| 53rd | +0.09▲0.08 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.18 | 47th |
| 98th | +0.67▲0.76 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.67▼0.48 | 2nd |
| 41st | 1▼0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 1▲0.3 | 59th |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Bowling GreenBGSU | Iowa StateISU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2629th | Own 2956th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | 0.0 pts39th | 0.0 pts50th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 317th | 329th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −22.07th | +22.093rd |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 127th | 251st |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | +0.3 pts68th | −0.3 pts32nd |
| Return touchdownsReturn TDsDefensive and special-teams touchdowns. | 192nd | 192nd |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ISU +3.9: turnovers +2.6, field position +1.3, 4th downs −0.8, penalty first downs +0.8. | −3.931st | +3.969th |
Season so far
Bowling Green2–7 · 109th-hardest schedule
Lvs Tarleton State13–20missed −2
L
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5
at Nebraska7–56missed +30.5Lat Iowa State7–55missed +23.5
at Iowa State7–55missed +23.5L
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5
vs South Florida6–14covered +18.5W
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5
at Miami (OH)24–20covered +10.5W
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9
vs Sacramento State38–10covered −9L
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5
vs Ball State31–32missed −5.5L
at Buffalo24–31missed +3
at Buffalo24–31missed +3L
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14
at Western Michigan10–23covered +14Iowa State3–4 · 18th-hardest schedule
Wvs Southeast Missouri State38–10missed −30
L
at Iowa13–16covered +14
at Iowa13–16covered +14Wvs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5L
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5W
vs West Virginia45–42push −3
vs West Virginia45–42push −3L
at BYU10–24missed +12
at BYU10–24missed +12L
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-game
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-gameModel cfb_best · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Sep 19, 10:05 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is