Week 8 report · Sat, Oct 24 · 2026 Week 8
Iowa State
3–4 · Ours #49 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
3–39FinalWe had ISU 20 – ARIZ 32
AP #25Arizona
6–2 · Ours #23 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.ARIZ 78%ARIZ won
ARIZ 78%ARIZ wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at ARIZ −10.5.ARIZ −12oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −12.4 · ARIZ covered by 24
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 52.4.51.5final 42 · under by 9.5
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.ARIZ −10Wbeat the close by 2.0
ARIZ −10Wbeat the close by 2.0Quarterbacksthis game
Connor Moberly7/17 · 63 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.495th pct
- Comp %
- 41.2
- TD
- 0
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Replaced Jaylen Raynor in Q2
Noah Fifita28/35 · 313 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.4380th pct
- Comp %
- 80.0
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 1
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Iowa Stateoffense | Played like ARIZ +21.6Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseArizona | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13th | 29.7%▼11.2 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 29.7%▲8.1 | 87th |
| 21st | −0.15▼0.20 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.15▲0.17 | 79th |
| 33rd | −0.10▼0.15 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.10▲0.11 | 67th |
| 15th | −0.23▼0.32 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.23▲0.24 | 85th |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
| Arizonaoffense | defenseIowa State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67th | 46.4%▼2.1 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 46.4%▼4.0 | 34th |
| 74th | +0.23▲0.02 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.23▼0.21 | 26th |
| 77th | +0.34▼0.03 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.34▼0.29 | 23rd |
| 58th | +0.09▲0.10 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.09▼0.12 | 42nd |
| 79th | 0▲1.0 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Iowa StateISU | ArizonaARIZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 229th | Own 2953rd |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | +0.8 pts70th | −1.0 pts22nd |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 3714th | 5643rd |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −24.35th | +24.395th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 486th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.7 pts17th | +0.5 pts78th |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. ARIZ +6.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +2.3, kicking −1.3, 4th downs +1.6, penalty first downs +1.5. | −6.820th | +6.880th |
Season so far
Iowa State3–4 · 18th-hardest schedule
Wvs Southeast Missouri State38–10missed −30
L
at Iowa13–16covered +14
at Iowa13–16covered +14W
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5L
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5W
vs West Virginia45–42push −3
vs West Virginia45–42push −3L
at BYU10–24missed +12
at BYU10–24missed +12Lat Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-game
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-gameArizona6–2 · 73rd-hardest schedule
Wvs Northern Arizona35–7missed −33
Lat BYU17–28missed +7
at BYU17–28missed +7W
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5
vs Northern Illinois42–17missed −34.5W
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5
at Washington State34–24missed −10.5W
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7
vs Cincinnati34–7covered −7Wat West Virginia52–31covered −3.5
at West Virginia52–31covered −3.5Wvs Iowa State39–3covered −12
vs Iowa State39–3covered −12L
at Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5
at Texas Tech26–34missed +3.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 24, 3:20 PM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is