Week 6 report · Fri, Oct 9 · 2026 Week 6
Iowa State
3–4 · Ours #48 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
10–24FinalWe had ISU 19 – BYU 32
AP #8BYU
6–1 · Ours #13 enteringOur rank going into this game, from the rankings page. The board's line comes from the betting model, which sees more than this one number.
Win chanceOur odds before kickoff: how often each team won outright when we played the game out thousands of times from our line.BYU 79%BYU won
BYU 79%BYU wonSpreadOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. First seen at BYU −10.5.BYU −12oursOur computer's point spread for this game, built from team stats, not from the betting odds. Read it like a betting line: −7 means we have that team winning by 7. −13.3 · BYU covered by 2
TotalOur last pregame odds pull, usually inside the hour before kickoff. A median of the books we track, not a sharp close. Our total was 50.7.47final 34 · under by 13
Our callThe side our number took at the early-week line, graded at that line. Line value is how far the market moved toward it by the last capture before kickoff.BYU −11Wbeat the close by 1.0
BYU −11Wbeat the close by 1.0Quarterbacksthis game
Jaylen Raynor16/29 · 98 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- −0.3312th pct
- Comp %
- 55.2
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 3
Bear Bachmeier22/30 · 329 yards
- EPA / dropbackExpected points added per dropback (passes and sacks) in this game. The percentile is among every 2026 FBS quarterback game with 10+ dropbacks.
- +0.3675th pct
- Comp %
- 73.3
- TD
- 2
- Turnovers
- 00 INT · 0 fum
- Sacked
- 0
The matchupthis game · ▲▼ better or worse than the unit's usual · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Iowa Stateoffense | Played like BYU +18.3Fitted from non-garbage efficiency; describes how the game was played, not who deserved it. | defenseBYU | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11th | 28.6%▼12.6 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 28.6%▲12.3 | 90th |
| 25th | −0.11▼0.16 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | −0.11▲0.14 | 75th |
| 15th | −0.33▼0.42 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | −0.33▲0.43 | 85th |
| 70th | +0.18▲0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | +0.18▼0.23 | 31st |
| 79th | 0▲0.6 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.6 | 21st |
| BYUoffense | defenseIowa State | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 76th | 49.2%▲1.4 | Success rateSuccessShare of plays that kept the offense on schedule, outside garbage time. | 49.2%▼7.4 | 24th |
| 66th | +0.17▼0.05 | EPA / playEPA/playExpected points added per play, outside garbage time. | +0.17▼0.13 | 34th |
| 78th | +0.36▲0.05 | PassingPassingExpected points added per dropback, outside garbage time. | +0.36▼0.31 | 22nd |
| 41st | −0.02▼0.17 | RushingRushingExpected points added per run, outside garbage time. | −0.02▲0.02 | 59th |
| 79th | 0▲0.8 | TurnoversTurnoversInterceptions and lost fumbles: giveaways for the offense, takeaways for the defense. | 0▼0.4 | 21st |
Team statsthis game · percentile vs every 2026 team game
| Iowa StateISU | BYUBYU | |
|---|---|---|
| Special teams & field position | ||
| Average startWhere the team's drives started on average. | Own 2526th | Own 2738th |
| Kicking vs expectedKickingPoints from field goals and extra points against what an average kicker makes from the same spots. | −1.2 pts20th | +0.7 pts68th |
| Drives & pace | ||
| PlaysOffensive plays outside garbage time. | 5643rd | 6158th |
| Drive pointsThe part of the final margin the offense moved the ball for (efficiency, success rate, big plays, finishing drives), in points. A margin over the opponent. | −18.510th | +18.590th |
| Turnovers & hidden points | ||
| Penalty first downsPenalty 1st downsFirst downs the team was handed by the opponent's penalties. | 251st | 08th |
| 4th downsPoints from going for it on fourth down, against what the average team gets from the same spots. | −0.2 pts36th | −1.9 pts1st |
| Hidden pointsPoints from outside the offense's drives: turnovers, field position, kicking, fourth downs, penalty first downs, return touchdowns and safeties. A margin over the opponent. BYU +0.8: turnovers +2.6, field position +0.6, kicking +1.4, 4th downs −2.3, penalty first downs −1.5. | −0.847th | +0.853rd |
Season so far
Iowa State3–4 · 18th-hardest schedule
Wvs Southeast Missouri State38–10missed −30
L
at Iowa13–16covered +14
at Iowa13–16covered +14W
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5
vs Bowling Green55–7covered −23.5L
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5
vs Utah17–31missed +7.5W
vs West Virginia45–42push −3
vs West Virginia45–42push −3Lat BYU10–24missed +12
at BYU10–24missed +12L
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-game
at Arizona3–39missed +12QB change mid-gameBYU6–1 · 35th-hardest schedule
Wvs Utah Tech63–7covered −50.5
Wvs Arizona28–17covered −7
vs Arizona28–17covered −7W
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5
at Colorado State41–23covered −17.5W
at TCU17–10covered −6
at TCU17–10covered −6Wvs Iowa State24–10covered −12
vs Iowa State24–10covered −12W
vs Notre Dame28–24covered +10.5
vs Notre Dame28–24covered +10.5L
at UCF31–39missed −7.5
at UCF31–39missed −7.5Model cfb_scratch · uncertainty ±15.5 · run Oct 9, 7:15 AM EDT · froze at kickoff and graded as-is